Patterns and Factors Influencing Traffic Crashes in Ramallah and Al Bireh Governorate

Abstract

Abstract Traffic crashes in Ramallah and Al-Bireh Governorate increased due to population growth, urban expansion, and the rising number of vehicles on the roads, placing sustained pressure on the road network between 2019 and 2024. This thesis addresses a local evidence gap by combining official crash records from the General Directorate of the Palestinian Police (GDPP) and the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics (PCBS) to examine where crashes occur, how severe they are, and which factors are most consistently associated with them. The analysis followed three stages. First, data collection and validation were completed using police and PCBS records. Second, spatial analysis was performed using Kernel Density Estimation (KDE) and Global and Local Moran's I to identify concentration patterns and spatial outliers. Third, Chi-square tests and descriptive trend analysis were used to assess how crash cause, crash type, and severity varied over time. Results show a persistent concentration of crashes in urban corridors and major intersections, while global spatial autocorrelation was not statistically significant at the governorate scale. Local Moran's I identified a limited number of locally distinct sites, including an outlier segment on Al-Tireh Main Road. Chi-square outputs showed significant year-to-year variation in crash characteristics. The findings were interpreted against prior local, regional, and international studies, with explicit attention to data-quality limits such as underreporting of minor crashes and mobility disruptions during COVID-19 and later political restrictions. This thesis provides an evidence base for targeted enforcement, infrastructure prioritization, and safer mobility planning in Ramallah and Al-Bireh Governorate.