Mitigating the Urban Heat Island Effect in Nablus: Using spatial planning technologies to Inform Urban Planning and Design Interventions
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Date
2025
Authors
رزان الهموز
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Abstract
This research aims to study the phenomenon of Urban Heat Islands in the city of Nablus, which is manifested in the noticeable rise in land surface temperatures due to dense urban expansion, scarcity of vegetation cover, and increased heat emissions from human activities. A multi-method approach was adopted, including remote sensing, spatial analysis using Geographic Information Systems, and dynamic modeling using the Vensim software.
A range of environmental indicators were analyzed, such as the vegetation index, built-up index, moisture index, and surface reflectivity (albedo), in addition to studying topographic factors such as elevation, slope, and orientation. Satellite data from 2014 to 2024 revealed a gradual increase in surface temperatures and a loss of approximately 37.3% of vegetation cover in the city.
Statistical models—Ordinary Least Squares and Geographically Weighted Regression—were used along with a predictive map based on environmental and urban factors to explain the spatial variation in temperature. A dynamic model was also built to simulate the long-term effects of urban changes and proposed interventions.
The proposed strategies included increasing green spaces, using cool roofs and reflective materials, planting along roads, and updating planning and construction regulations to align with climate considerations. For example, adding 50 dunams of green space resulted in a surface temperature decrease of over 5°C. Interventions in residential, industrial, and refugee camp areas proved effective in reducing temperatures and improving thermal comfort.
This study reinforces the importance of sustainable urban planning as a tool for climate adaptation and provides quantitative evidence of the effectiveness of nature-based solutions in mitigating the urban heat island effect in Nablus.