IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE WATER BUDGET IN THE FARIA CATCHMENT, PALESTINE
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Date
2025-01-12
Authors
Daraghma, Qais
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Publisher
An-Najah National University
Abstract
Studying the climate change impacts on the elements of the hydrological cycle in the Faria catchment is extremely important, given that the region is classified as semi-arid. Many inhabitants of the region depend on agriculture and there is a pressing need to develop the water supply and understand the future of water under climate change owing to the rapid population growth and the expansion of human activities.
The study includes analyzing the changes in the climate elements and studying their impact on the hydrological cycle. The study uses SimClim AR6 (Assessment Report) to model the climate change and SWAT hydrological model for a comprehensive analysis of the effects of climate change.
Daily climate data for the period (1990-2021) were used for building the hydrological model and the results were calibrated and verified using the SWAT-CUP software. The statistical performance parameters such as Coefficient of Determination (R2) and Nash Sutcliff Efficiency (NSE) enhanced the reliability of the model.
The study analyzed the impacts on the core elements (precipitation, minimum and maximum temperatures, relative humidity, solar radiation, and wind speed) using 23 GCM's under the influence of the medium emission scenario SSP2-4.5 and the high emission scenario SSP5-8.5 to investigate the changes in the five elements over time periods of 2060 and 2100.
The results revealed a marked decrease in the seasonal precipitation and relative humidity rates, resulting in a decrease in groundwater recharge rates of -8.81% under the SSP2-4.5 scenario until 2060 to -27.43% under the SSP5-8.5 scenario until 2100. Surface runoff rates result between -15.43% under the SSP2-4.5 scenario for 2060 to -43.31% under the SSP5-8.5 scenario for 2100. A marked increase resulted in the future temperature rates and evapotranspiration by 3.14% under the SSP2-4.5 scenario for 2060 to 9.64% under the SSP5-8.5 scenario for 2100. An increase in the solar radiation rates and variability in wind speeds are expected. The results also showed a decrease in water yield rates by -14.31% under the SSP2-4.5 scenario for the 2060 to -42.50% SSP2-4.5 under the SSP5-8.5 for the 2100, significantly threatening water resources in the future. Therefore, there is an urgent need to find plans and strategies to adapt to this phenomenon and develop water efficiency to enhance water sustainability.
The study emphasizes the great importance of promoting hydrological and climatic modelling in order to comprehensively understand the extent to which climate changes affect water resources especially in arid and semi-arid regions. It also recommends that cooperation between decision makers and researchers be strengthened in order to develop research meeting the expected challenges of climate change and adaptation to its impacts.