Analysis and Evaluation of Development in Palestine using Urban Carrying Capacity Assessment System: Tulkarem Governorate as a Case Study
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Date
2018-04-01
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An-Najah National University
Abstract
This study examines the analysis the development in Tulkarm governorate using the urban carrying capacity assessment system during the period (2005-2016), which is defined as the maximum level of human activities, such as population's growth ,land use and physical development without considerable degradation and damage.
The problem lies in this study is that the Tulkarm governorate developed highly and intensely during the period (2005-2016), Consequently, more pressure was put on natural resources. However, this rapid development may does not commensurate with the urban carrying capacity. This, in turn, leads to persistent and permanent problems, especially those related to population and overlapped land use, which jeopardize the natural resources . In addition to the impact of the political factor that limits and prevents the achievement of the potential development, which is compatible with the urban carrying capacity of the governorate, where there is enough area that can be exploited in the case of absence of the occupation to guide and achieve the best development that preserves the governorate in a sustainable manner.
This study aims first to analyze ,and evaluate the development in Tulkarm governorate using the Urban Carrying Capacity Assessment System (UCCAS) through building up a Framework of factors of urban carrying capacity. Therefore and in order to determine the change in the development in the governorate and identify the influential factors of carrying capacity. the researcher divided the study , according the available data, into two periods : (2005 and 2016) , used GIS for built up spatial databases for the study periods, and used aerial photographs (Orthophotos 2005 and 2016) for the sake of review and audit. secondly, planning for potential development scenarios in terms of carrying capacity in both cases with and without the geopolitical situation of the Governorate to develop it in a convenient manner in case of land availability and suitability.
The results showed that the urban carrying capacity of the Governorate was determined mainly by two factors: population density and agriculture land use , and it also showed according to the analyses of both scenarios, that the political factor limits and prevents the achievement of the potential development, which is compatible with the urban carrying capacity of the governorate ,where there is enough area that can be exploited in the case of absence of the occupation to guide and achieve the best development that preserves the governorate in a sustainable manner.
Based on these results, the researcher came up with the following recommendations: establishment of a geospatial database based on Geographic Information System (GIS) for the classification the land uses accurately. The researcher also recommends, to prepare ways to control future developments in any area of Palestine within its urban carrying capacity, and application of this methodology of different levels and characteristics of urban environments in Palestine to achieve to achieve the desired sustainable development.