النقل البيني لنماذج تولد الرحلات للمدن الفلسطينية: أريحا وسلفيت
عامر, أحمد عامر عبد اللطيف
An-Najah National University
Trip generation modeling forms the basic and first step in the four-step urban transportation planning process. Limited work has been done in this field in Palestine. The preparation of trip generation models requires extensive surveys, in depth analysis, and considerable time, cost, and effort for model development. Therefore, this study deals with examining the potential for the transferability of estimated trip generation models between cities. This study has two primary research objectives; to model vehicular trips generated in Salfit City, and to study the spatial transferability of already estimated trip generation models for Jericho City to Salfit City. This research considers a general model for all trips generated by a household, and then deals with trip generation models based on trip purpose and trip making period. Five trip purposes are considered; work, educational, shopping, social, and recreational. The models based on trip making period include the trip generation model for trips made by household before 8:00 AM, between 8:00 – 9:00 AM, between 9:00 AM – 12:00 PM, between 12:00– 4:00 PM, and after 4:00 PM. A questionnaire was designed and utilized to collect data from a randomly selected sample of 256 households in Salfit City. The data were analyzed and trip generation models were then estimated. Regression analysis was conducted considering sixteen potential independent variables. Each independent variable in each model was evaluated using statistical tests such as Pearson’s correlation, P-value, T-test, F-test, the coefficient of determination, and variance inflation factor. The results of this research show that the models of general, work, educational, trips made before 8:00 AM and the model of trips made after 4:00 PM for Salfit City are proposed to be considered for the future transportation planning for the city. The transferability of Jericho City models estimated in 2014 to Salfit City was investigated, where the results were compared with those resulting from the trip generation models generated first for Salfit. Two approaches to test the transferability of the models were used; “Native Transfer” and “Updating Constant”. The outcome of the verification of transferability tests to transfer the trip generation models estimated for Jericho City to Salfit City show that the models of general, work, educational trips, and the model of trips made before 8:00 AM are transferable using the “Native Transfer” and “Updating Constant” methods, while the others are not. This research shows that when the variables, which have similarity in socioeconomic characteristics between two cities exist in relevant model, transfer effectiveness will improve. The transferability of the general of key trip generation models between cities is generally feasible, and therefore will save cost, time, and effort.