Developing Water Demand and Losses Forecasting and Losses Reduction Models for Water Management System in the Municipality of Nablus An-Najah National University Faculty of Engineering and Information Technology Industrial Engineering Department Graduation Project II Wednesday, December 29, 2021 Meet The Team Supervisor: Dr. Yahya Saleh Prepared By: Adnan Seddeh Hala Ratrout Lana Lahham Osama Hijawi Aya Abu-Rajab 01 02 03 04 INTRODUCTION PROBLEM STATMENT OBJECTIVES CONSTRAINTS & DIFFICULTIES TABLE OF CONTENTS 08 07 06 05 CONCLUSION DATA ANALYSIS AND RESULTS METHODOLOGY LITERATURE REVIEW 09 RECOMMENDATIONS MANAGMENT FORECASTING About municipality of Nablus Water and Sanitation Department in Nablus Municipality Major idea of our project related to the importance of water and reduce the losses to achieve the best. INTRODUCTION The current water network in Nablus is considered unqualified, as there are several types of losses that lead to losses in the amount of water sent to citizens as well as financial losses. PROBLEM STATMENT water losses causes: -physical  leakage of tanks, leakage of pipes. -commercial inaccurate measurements, water theft. OBLECTIVES The project aims to reach two main points, namely, building an effective prediction model to predict the state of the water network in Nablus, which specifically detects water losses for each pressure zone (PZ) and transition lines (TL). Which helps in evaluating the future water consumption of the city to meet the demand of customers at the lowest possible cost. And the second trend is to provide an initial administrative system that helps manage and reduce waste to reach the same goal. CONSTRAINTS & DIFFICULTIES The difficulty of taking times for meeting with people in municipality because of the afraid from corona The lack in time because of the current situation and the procedure of taking data form water department Missing data for some pressure zones, periods, and meters that needs calibration. The difficulty of collecting data and finding sources or references about the problem, which took a lot of time and effort to achieve accurate and reliable results. LITERATURE REVIEW Forecasting Anticipating the occurrence of an expectation of the company's ability to derive its next moves from predicting what will happen if this occurs, as the study of current events is a tool for decision-making and dealing with future uncertainty. The importance of forecasting lies in giving the ability to make data-driven decisions, as forecasting provides information related to past, present, and potential future events. Especially in the process of water forecasting, managers are able to estimate future demand and enable them to understand spatial and temporal patterns of future water use to improve the system or plan for future water purchase in addition to future revenues and expenditures. LITERATURE REVIEW Management system For a management system, the four phrases (plan, do, verify and implement) are the key aspects of any management system in addition to continuous system improvement. water management system : Water Management is important since it helps determine future Irrigation expectations. water management is the control and movement of water resources to minimize the loses under set policies and regulations. collect accurate data to help in building the models that In conjunction with field visits and follow up with engineers Collecting data after analyze data we will put a work frame aims to Improve water distribution and management after get suitable forecasting model in terms of reduce losses Data forecasting and management follow mechanisms, read studies and articles Study tool use a statistical software’s in terms of know the weakness and the trends of data in way to improve it to do the necessary processes to build and improve models Analysis data MRTHODOLOGY 02 01 03 04 DATA ANALYSIS AND RESULYS Nablus city divided into 28 areas doe to water department distribution Have a population about 155K people with growth rate about 2.5% SCATTER PLOT CHARTS (NM 2015-2019) WP&WC FOR Nablus(28PZ) WC 940940 130377 2003960 1497877.1 1605937 1605937 447854 675372 2415756 1506405 972702.4 1179007.2 991366 2340650 1050767 2134067 1146121 2098086 2237754 1855965 642687 300258 1056437 7414222 2709733 798444 1338699 733807 520009 106575 1182564 1055308.2 1303973 1303973 203108 430788 2003784 964060 610045.30000000005 708695.70000000007 578436.19999999995 1833129 891711 1219018 639043 1357690 1761752 1061201 397816 212172 789829 3665523 1928059 621931 979874 461120 WP WC (NM 2015-2019) WP&WC FOR 14PZ WC 2944900 2872402 5420278.0999999996 3852715 2340650 991366 3203808.6 4335840 4818600 1146121 447854 2796858 11283381 130377 1702573 2071577 4012472.2 2866099 1833129 578436.19999999995 2209252 3119442 3145913 639043 203108 1673829 6130849 106575 2944900 2872402 5420278.0999999996 3852715 2340650 991366 3203808.6 4335840 4818600 1146121 447854 2796858 11283381 130377 2944900 2872402 5420278.0999999996 3852715 2340650 991366 3203808.6 4335840 4818600 1146121 447854 2796858 11283381 130377 WP WC SCATTER PLOT CHARTS SCATTER PLOT FOR NM WATER PRODUCE & WATER CONSUME MONTHELY (1-2015 TO 12-2019) WC 8845 7754 8146 9400 10252 10545 12067 12391 10627 9850 11654 12965 14773 15490 16793 19482 16090 17018 11012 14518 10782 10369 31824 38118 39584 38705 30166 11662 11277 11942 12566 10804 28870 11610 10686 10676 12283 10888 12551 12611 11380 12545 13181 12247 11399 12395 11923 11501 13257 12224 14156 13940 19751 18632 16316 17622 29694 16065 14800 40266 2810 1912 2010 2283 2280 2452 3101 2712 2231 2064 1953 1686 1881 1863 1939 2318 2224 2605 2315 2288 2179 2300 2399 2528 1824 1718 1588 2155 2123 2365 2218 2063 2283 1950 1998 1641 1867 1698 2183 2171 2129 2195 2217 2453 2201 2607 1919 1794 2035 1849 1880 2207 2257 2639 2570 2590 2264 2362 2033 1998 29366 23922 25109 28522 30157 33016 34443 35093 34464 32838 29411 28707 29289 29561 30891 37316 34096 38732 37459 31605 33050 33545 22631 16155 28814 6070 19671 36786 33387 36698 29569 35179 29218 34325 35500 29636 35130 30119 38425 39280 37349 38908 38634 40100 34185 40815 35432 32529 34588 32319 37199 40099 38127 50746 45350 51685 34353 44634 37604 22119 24019 22097 22295 27520 23171 25186 23119 24606 21793 26492 22594 21973 19484 23913 19775 26871 24640 26155 23220 26506 24713 28634 23026 21897 22751 25500 22973 24482 23915 24674 23570 24646 27565 26171 32019 21717 22099 23154 27753 29821 23363 31142 27750 27981 23954 29865 21964 23459 23537 18679 21084 20908 24079 37657 31705.1 41749 18308 26247 24470 23467 26047 19607 23118 26165 24354 32754 30094 27374 27198 17141 23541 25176 23717 19985 23396 26798 22427 28300 27384 26095 21693 22675 25996 20586 21756 24871 18445 27561 19199 22711 20000 24001 33158 25755 30833 24467 26866 23923 31601 31571 28646 29489 29535 30638 30303 30462 25316 27924 25048 26345 27781 29627 29763 37816 32909 35698 31365 36286 32323 30324 26047 19607 23118 26165 24354 32754 30094 27374 27198 17141 23541 25176 23717 19985 23396 26798 22427 28300 27384 26095 21693 22675 25996 20586 21756 24871 18445 27561 19199 22711 20000 24001 33158 25755 30833 24467 26866 23923 31601 31571 28646 29489 29535 30638 30303 30462 25316 27924 25048 26345 27781 29627 29763 37816 32909 35698 31365 36286 32323 30324 4835 5561 5355 6468 5608 6860 7020 5932 6151 6984 5939 4896 5244 5006 5398 7084 6731 7963 7518 7604 7651 6913 7444 5550 6784 6831 6660 7849 7840 8122 7947 8537 10531 9635 8673 6799 8070 7742 7939 8894 9005 9174 9867 9218 6083 9558 9212 7597 8517 6744 6619 6082 7395 11322 8900 9821 8624 9197 6073 8278 11129 12471 12028 10948 10164 11054 11339 11756 10646 10209 10128 9938 9915 9877 11860 12656 10996 12652 13070 10178 12330 12036 9609 11180 10745 12009 10592 12156 10317 11649 9380 9257 13000 10802 10243 8788 9629 9022 12066 11431 9919 11691 10437 12620 9032 12115 11176 11147 10516 10594 13239 12258 11676 15452 12692 15843 10675 13186 11246 10603 38670 44188 21467 36230 30194 36998 34042 41816 31 365 20891 34184 34505 38640 38606 40947 44412 39955 43030 38921 39387 40449 36608 44697 36949 36918 35801 33798 43276 41944 42377 32679 41716 41435 43355 40895 37021 36628 40505 41993 48270 35986 42429 44489 38739 45141 42438 47985 40249 37993 44410 40455 46492 40427 50644 48561 49753 52701 51844 45061 44197 16674 10918 14477 16423 28064 30005 30294 24675 25441 33521 29046 28921 26222 12447 17601 28793 26574 37335 31049 30739 30742 34591 27830 25616 17777 11956 9356 21589 26048 26004 24573 26877 34529 32521 32938 26680 24122 10715 14466 21567 23252 27743 26330 26062 26132 23620 24918 20268 26656 23113 26784 18882 23574 37114 28293 31915 31512 28505 25305 26711 13874 16441 17169 13665 10698 5088 14400 15291 12592 14291 12007 11842 13484 12992 14325 14652 13356 12604 8844 18131 17867 15614 18296 16293 15924 15914 14596 20568 16258 21602 15071 16102 19256 18155 18020 16491 18196 16817 17751 18256 19366 18285 19257 19134 14811 20711 16943 17103 16971 17830 18840.8 20564.599999999999 18449.099999999999 19850.8 19055.099999999999 21664 12447 15005 16608 17014 13752 14327 16248 13476 12384 13645 12754 12676 16097 14240 14702 14100 14600 13408 16638 15834 17171 18698 13935 15480 17047 14807 14464 14901 14557 15674 14092 16960 15126 19389 13764 17532 17403 18106 16740 22854 27361 22790 27946 17794 15134 29365 29188 29652 25853 30860 27355 27892 30489 27536 22890.2 19424 21034 18738 16050 33885 32635 31082 28132 28341 21576 12218 13828 10660 13644 19384 14773 13505 13231 11211 10795 9303 10621 11063 10842 13991 13827 13410 11605 18445 12896 13930 13878 10480 12198 11730 11194 17744 15460 17909 14318 22336 19210 17025 15638 14192 14406 11738 19492 19454 16090 19923 22022 19158 16654 21298 16594 12948 19791 16848 21151.9 34934.1 28638 17625 15443 34537 24262 20936 18299 21054 39840 41750 40680 45414 40577 49066 47595 43401 45260 45216 41384 38169 33446 42848 41551 54807 46687 44996 40188 40059 43213 33859 37140 37078 41247 35974 31525 36604 34511 37985 40985 34141 42294 34297 37134 30081 35292 33761 38781 38834 38477 36740 32261 35025 35037 35285 33241 36056 39346 35862 34051 37963 40791 43474 38841 44441 34666 42904 32211 36308 20213 18918 18380 19466 21630 24434 24853 23021 20836 18024 18307 15960 16409 17071 19239 18239 21745 23853 21665 19038 21328 19895 22520 15673 18005 15786 14783 20201 23284 25147 26160 19806 24136 24643 24648 9538 11562 12890 11873 14075 13117 13974 14819 13706 11670 13290 13312 12715 13070 10618 9491 10235 18658 18755 10833 24816 16106 12101 11622 10605 26700 18750 20407 23300 36936 47993 47993 44864 41827 38756 39438 37791 35026 34618 35474 43453 43453 42986 43330 37368 37368 37368 35646 29457 30895 33093 27451 39191 30257 40165 35227 36273 38876 34755 34755 34755 29707 27568 39284 35530 37080 39742 35418 36837 37453 37008 37718 30485 36686 32619 33963 34804 34634 48091 41344 43190 32064 30213 23317 23317 18805 30771 29390 24771 17583 19784 19190 20223 17430 20417 15061 15198 16126 15971 16524 20101 18299 19281 17487 16908 16203 17032 17058 14527 14782 15201 14037 16186 18104 18664 17631 18992 19770 17698 18525 14899 15909 15145 17053 20792 17960 18880 23892 19595 18718 18995 16060 18391 19009 15666 19090 20094 19898 29503 24832 27939 24607 22832 21640 20992 33793 29155 31343 33644 30688 36735 34863 42470 39264 40298 33435 26027 29266 29833 31637 39016 38322 36737 41284 36816 36277 33022 35304 26524 29888 27406 29422 38375 37901 38543 32019 42907 39738 34983 34137 28717 29030 28612 33775 36151 37029 35333 37515 38844 34817 36821 31010 30144 34103 32029 29565 37484 35199 41786 46605 47050 39939 41327 33862 30267 38054 35276 34773 39060 34416 41866 40555 39695 36603 38345 30749 34682 31701 31479 36535 36471 35328 44358 34696 37094 40771 37363 33351 35509 31155 33447 32991 41320 35430 44990 29905 41231 42485 35322 37361 31607 39706 31337 41159 43121 34708 43191 43009 40957 31684 40402 34066 35492 37897 31508 36082 36639 35903 47684 43321 40990 45346 39578 33851 34149 30187 34155 31749 33868 29605 31969 32774 28154 29608 31812 26532 27859 26442 27600 26603 31571 30443 38778 36148 36054 34057 28964 25678 26444 27541 27903 23941 31396 31616 28131 28445 27529 36975 24348 30911 24904 29105 26496 31649 31567 27311 34304 33189 30024 29417 29488 31638 29843 29121 30232 28938 28695 33675 46584 37053 45584 32735 37187 30847 30589 10433 10486 12352 12541 9757 10786 11275 10491 9848 10750 10815 9447 7390 8124 7095 10362 11023 11123 14578 15249 13203 16209 16271 11435 12992 11825 10263 11895 11534 10909 10274 9236 13537 9955 10147 10154 11753 10218 15019 12901 13198 14114 13030 9481 9639 11678 10532 8902 7641 8549 7852 9608 9271 11581 6017 8775 9237 4657 6881 8389 4888 4518 4637 4506 4891 4320 5624 5060 4747 4703 4479 3828 4638 4319 4682 6004 5109 4815 5149 5286 4432 5502 4863 4213 4691 4322 4565 5742 5638 6052 6608 4259 5909 4677 4268 4512 4864 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9059.7999999999993 11189.1 9698.6 11108.3 10102.5 10967 10248 10638 8236 7975 9037 8960 7941 10047 9714 10355 11873 11165 12426 11889 10942 11015 10463 11326 10732 13538 12783 12416 12519 12383 13088 10061 11731 10492 10574 12135 10133 13658 11938 14620 10020 11263 12653 11691 12778 11482 11866 11392 12077 11874 13589 13944 11615 13830 9184 10751 10514 7376 7703 13756 16240.4 14188.3 15609 10391 9837 13177 25531 13640 10937 9833 7056 7503 6403 7802 8341 9182 10418 9210 9391 8674 8576 7957 8699 7665 7959 9015 10576 9468 9393 10024 10828 8494 8686 7683 7705 8430 7605 9556 10044 12185 7838 9692 10581 9174 9683 8598 8946 9093 8357 9564 9868 11616 9962 11169 5453 8563 6833 6162 5968 11756 24287.200000000001 20582 22693 9682 9560 12142 10157 8890 8882 8157 29783 31321 29940 34796 32703 33234 36863 34780 37563 33156 31207 31314 28966 13807 31014 39633 31670 35527 35221 31649 35859 27851 32636 27633 28426 30660 26475 33152 31145 33983 26355 29618 33336 29515 32041 27646 28501 28267 26907 31145 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12834 9357 10315 12225 9871 11103 9415 10441 9805 10216 11155 11384 12017 10661 12566 10896 9875 9225 9145 9560 9229 11030 10009 12587 10240 13045 10171 8403 12193 8612 6843 21058 19433 20270 23390 23958 24050 30038 23145 26359 23386 22349 18482 20510 21754 23018 28469 25741 23459 25024 30413 26603 20615 23552 19737 18437 20356 19918 24553 24218 27424 19811 20901 25947 21041 23415 19180 18664 20710 20466 24102 26380 27481 25022 26065 19131 16435 17435 19897 20116 18740 23101 24532 27840 24699 22488 28171 22014 22087 20082 12018 28113 25141 26193 32421 29893 31019 37460 26539 33606 28284 26093 26079 27671 26463 26439 31076 29504 30586 32831 30691 34518 25927 29786 25757 25403 27312 25486 29838 28517 35573 25486 24636 32808 26061 30426 24308 28521 26026 25364 30430 32702 34769 26607 27730 46322 18321 29990 42533 27353 24396 30459 28873 37833 30408 35586 28596 29939 29150 26310 25590 18139 17081 17562 19190 20291 19743 21513 19483 20707 17878 17135 16085 17797 16600 17708 20802 18978 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12522 11813 11900 12145 13625 12167 16483 12097 11380 12797 12810 12401 12079 12456 11896 11893 13395 9868 14002 12480 15957 12719 13657 8447 9126 10377 12252 12456 11750 15436 11796 13850 13555 12506 12148 12154 11644 53100 53796 50603 64408 61282 67393 73441 65336 68531 63841 58860 57514 55731 54005 62218 66492 62513 41604 43766 66086 71053 56684 63231 56324 52760 55914 54155 62625 63609 71064 55242 63522 70246 61748 65447 55960 55831 56493 55222 61036 68426 99520 64271 60757 84528 52569 46977 51912 54252 50940 65496 60489 69314 67043 77668 70634 60769 64933 58718 37621 30665 29930 29542 33832 34180 34340 39484 34711 34030 32231 31510 30099 30009 30569 29314 35690 33460 33686 33277 27696 42453 31655 29441 29881 27684 29231 29250 31936 32961 34916 29250 28517 35099 29619 33117 29477 32601 31581 30159 33390 11414 35388 33067 39008 30873 31260 30447 28848 30519 28459 33117 43617 35167 48220 35718 34816 33055 32069 28358 24166 8170 9543 8379 10364 11111 9480 11507 9270 10593 9779 9598 9788 9567 9679 9561 11013 11564 10249 10499 12389 11001 8415 10656 8584 9346 9759 9109 10811 9867 11607 9044 8335 11341 9550 10937 9313 10017 9342 9253 10248 11414 11448 9946 12252 6759 8327 7360 9422 8151 8398 10852 10090 13078 9207 12150 36316 10047 12014 8293 7769 16815 15159 14445 16301 16409 16414 19217 15976 165 67 17329 16242 17429 16623 14463 15571 16099 17654 18863 17567 17384 18894 14934 17474 15357 15135 15929 14998 17016 17196 18352 14998 15371 17597 15304 17137 15475 16010 15884 15832 16383 18211 17793 15715 18178 12609 14920 14563 15223 14476 14905 17114 16082 18553 15071 17644 19570 15782 16089 15074 14499 7106 6999 7020 7345 7853 8167 9642 7962 8830 8505 7480 6792 7429 7546 7021 8521 8775 9043 8446 8170 8752 7350 8675 6848 7436 6034 6921 7845 7830 8302 6921 7374 7649 7003 7510 6965 6760 7361 6423 8043 8066 8169 8182 8183 5512 6976 6053 6313 7035 6262 7652 6075 8504 7944 7622 18360 6047 7797 6946 6768 WP WC COEFFICIENT OF VARIATION CHARTS coefficient of variation 28 pz WP NE3 NE4 NE2 W1 W0 W-1 Zawata Ein Camp W2a W2b S3 S4 S5 W3 W4 E0.1 NE1 E0.2 E0.3 SE1 SE2 SE3 S2 C1 Asker old pump NW0 NW1+NW2a NW3+NW2b 0.51255011534297001 0.13918301410779182 0.21825167183582958 0.16191237629442587 0.16831008397216737 0.16831008397216737 0.19944143453155525 0.12350149310279342 0.1497198191375779 0.26120642285174073 0.19039805128489604 0.32049972879790517 0.31777422624890539 0.12293229054674293 0.27115564327091624 0.17925148540188687 0.19500360786806084 0.13650004361853496 0.11332456317094984 0.13997875602868107 0.21909201949326537 0.14596430288050197 0.13768063199201544 0.31127393202148879 0.22719757554406958 0.16863011970476732 0.15911498758330894 0.13693233328971777 coefficient of variation 28 pz WC NE3 NE4 NE2 W1 W0 W-1 Zawata Ein Camp W2a W2b S3 S4 S5 W3 W4 E0.1 NE1 E0.2 E0.3 SE1 SE2 SE3 S2 C1 Asker old pump NW0 NW1+NW2a 0.13997165176459564 0.14345746069608678 0.13190855483289107 0.13788015483564681 0.12308220014940102 0.12308220014940102 0.23708323963016337 0.14427101276141327 0.16667565883063348 0.15221221335767046 0.13412526319907708 0.21426311104209181 0.3416059377284274 0.13091911633619707 0.2024585170872347 0.16472687525758989 0.11834272872939068 0.15359097701240423 0.15458105370511399 0.11556928602877738 0.30061875656847636 0.10973716564895382 0.13296639429258228 0.15887926724896156 0.14931663917026025 0.34950292886178314 8.5684669773239019E-2 coefficient of variation 14 pz NE2+NE3 NW1+NW0+NW3 W2b+W2a+W1 W-1+W0+EIN W3 S5 W4+S3+S4 E0.3+E0.2 Askar+E0.1 NE1 ZAWATA SE1+SE2+SE3 C1+S2+SE1+SE2+SE3 NE4 0.16252650640140981 0.12279649236926068 0.13186795229177714 0.11174727912087547 0.12293229054674293 0.31777422624890539 0.12995501984906888 0.1121899139263812 0.14808422914206698 0.19500360786806084 0.19944143453155525 0.11581650704579434 0.2074280340348752 0.13918301410779182 coefficient of variation 14 pz WC NE2+NE4 NW1+NW0+NW4 W2b+W2a+W2 W-1+W0+EIN W3 S5 W4+S3+S4 E0.3+E0.2 Askar+E0.1 NE1 ZAWATA SE1+SE2+SE3 C1+S2+SE1+SE2+SE3 NE4 0.12054006704993721 0.17549201755125382 0.12943975210466141 0.11060939717691709 0.13091911633619707 0.3416059377284274 0.13727597756668619 0.13206518777785597 0.12090035227071617 0.11834272872939068 0.23708323963016337 0.12822253523059571 0.13048563794231061 0.14345746069608678 PARETO CHARTS PARETO CHARTS DATA NOTE WL=WP-WC Miss data points rate is 0.0327%. it’s common to have a 5% miss data points rate in data. Using R language libraries (import TS). The output of this procedure is fitting N/A data points. Uses na_Kalman fuc Smoothing on structural time series models (or on the state space representation of an ARIMA model) for imputation. Calendar effect. Why Cube root? Data Note: Bagging Some of PZ’s called “Isolated PZ”. That means NM sure that these PZ’s impossible have -ve (-ve value means WC > WP and that’s impossible) values. So, we assume Isolated PZ is an anchor PZ to stand on it. METHODS Time Plot. Time Series Decomposition Trend Analysis Forecasting Models Moving Average (MA) Single Exponential Smoothing (SES) Double Exponential Smoothing (DEA) Triple Exponential Smoothing (HW) Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) ADAPTIVE NEURO FUZZY INFERENCE SYSTEM (ANFIS) Takagi-Sugeno function fj Where, pj, qj, and rj are the consequent (then-part) parameters. In our case we use rules as (and). mtf = 3 NABLUS WC FORECASTING RESULTS NABLUS WC FORECASTING RESULTS NABLUS WC FORECASTING RESULTS   MAPE MSE MAE MA 2 2.93493 2.28116 8.01494 MA 4 3.37018 2.62007 9.91726 MA 6 3.6574 2.8436 11.2444 MA 2 C 2.25435 1.75486 4.7142 MA 4 C 2.11173 1.6432 4.33629 MA 6 C 2.38412 1.85372 5.34023 MA 1 3.4716 2.7108 10.7719 MA 3 3.05072 2.37637 8.59035 MA 5 3.4422 2.6754 10.3269 MA 7 3.5662 2.7656 10.6524 MA 1 C 3.4716 2.7108 10.7719 MA 3 C 1.95662 1.52077 3.56219 MA 5 C 2.21967 1.73043 4.69421 MA 7 C 2.4573 1.91173 5.4528 SES 3.02918 2.35772 8.23512 DEMA 3.07946 2.4039 8.81254 HW 0.2 2.25882 1.75778 4.78173 HW (0.8, 0.005, 0.1) 2.41757 1.88867 5.35394 NABLUS WC FORECASTING RESULTS Type Coef SE Coef T-Value P-Value AR   1 -0.798 0.152 -5.24 0.000 AR   2 -0.396 0.156 -2.53 0.015 SMA  12 0.769 0.176 4.36 0.000 Lag 12 24 36 48 Chi-Square 12.76 29.52 42.74 * DF 9 21 33 * P-Value 0.174 0.102 0.119 * DF SS MS 44 259.209 5.89111 Modified Box-Pierce (Ljung-Box) Chi-Square Statistic Residual Sums of Squares Final Estimates of Parameters NABLUS WC FORECASTING RESULTS ARIMA(2,1,0) (0,1, 1)12 NABLUS WC FORECASTING RESULTS ARIMA(2,1,0) (0,1, 1)12 Arima forecastin for nm wc (2015-2024) Forecast WC 43831 43862 43891 43922 43952 43983 44013 44044 44075 44105 44136 44166 44197 44228 44256 44287 44317 44348 44378 44409 44440 44470 44501 44531 44562 44593 44621 44652 44682 44713 44743 44774 44805 44835 44866 44896 44927 44958 44986 45017 45047 45078 45108 45139 45170 45200 45231 45261 45292 45323 45352 45383 45413 45444 45474 45505 45536 45566 45597 45627 413876.71049366693 412941.06641404569 394884.70936486381 469916.56584896933 451226.48739252525 491594.99642198026 449185.82878630038 461940.11125411803 472006.75963866216 402365.70370548114 405340.64999137778 369214.43207852973 382051.88510846015 405202.64397517778 388711.72818642226 451274.1411002567 441578.59373053454 47895 5.15452908009 435745.3546783622 450416.88756133942 459186.60915080312 390869.62909012689 394171.42605516093 358426.94201818173 371110.58262767049 393866.68717676814 377613.24710861442 439053.980617091 429531.48195885093 466218.12332634412 423803.36821769609 438201.89387520525 446812.84763869602 379762.95025719213 383000.40504606039 347945.13664648018 360381.71252774692 382701.45209157397 366758.79965808656 427047.93777667993 417698.79409183742 453719.5597578733 412076.60287696979 426209.76237721596 434663.39865170245 368868.68957345665 372044.01688451559 337671.15695788601 349863.13296062214 371749.24254736782 356115.88484481577 415261.1169370159 406087.08203220303 441444.65482692345 400569.80990269239 414440.10884789034 422737.90015568287 358183.28301783203 361297.07600455126 327600.01258335519 Lower 43831 43862 43891 43922 43952 43983 44013 44044 44075 44105 44136 44166 44197 44228 44256 44287 44317 44348 44378 44409 44440 44470 44501 44531 44562 44593 44621 44652 44682 44713 44743 44774 44805 44835 44866 44896 44927 44958 44986 45017 45047 45078 45108 45139 45170 45200 45231 45261 45292 45323 45352 45383 45413 45444 45474 45505 45536 45566 45597 45627 339554.16398736171 337329.40958017955 315442.96315318835 370232.84678711958 350427.97388623987 378232.66985125694 337317.77968711487 343420.59179499361 346757.72966182133 286412.71945021302 285038.41134358558 253128.00236948402 255723.81890547115 269601.15965507377 252604.96204917924 294685.00372713874 283202 .49874154036 306441.03432105895 270376.8870752576 277096.39666184044 279455.60711280809 227500.47529229464 226542.57668097157 199050.88084014718 201910.74615229596 213765.66864970504 199232.9835399664 235397.13060901937 225446.21094105786 245380.21705758365 214302.386882369 219935.42150779784 221825.27627596172 177395.3841158291 176438.59944205859 153114.06075439815 155660.09666825697 165506.22409167592 153191.34901616292 183616.53114434617 175052.12458399998 191795.56396290238 165386.88016505344 169973.46347222797 171405.22022597428 134095.86793867612 133153.36574281772 113771.79643035668 115877.38614662195 123846.31759984999 113619.01301050399 138600.98254179271 131373.86810381871 145105.35837349127 123152.18068469383 126782.15306547712 127817.66001488949 97267.457695060264 96381.856379031524 80735.835830825657 Upper 43831 43862 43891 43922 43952 43983 44013 44044 44075 44105 44136 44166 44197 44228 44256 44287 44317 44348 44378 44409 44440 44470 44501 44531 44562 44593 44621 44652 44682 44713 44743 44774 44805 44835 44866 44896 44927 44958 44986 45017 45047 45078 45108 45139 45170 45200 45231 45261 45292 45323 45352 45383 45413 45444 45474 45505 45536 45566 45597 45627 498322.67024073133 499082.9745842134 486655.99000691099 586056.85154663213 569708.35706086259 625605.52558863966 583398.98396142782 605004.17219124909 624276.64332265838 546021.63929138274 555469.00738936581 516268.44711035234 544341.8921682979 580014.41422883305 566588.55000698031 655349.5 0364799052 650139.34167666885 706440.9529770466 657665.46702996653 684142.5143795138 703045.94825555896 618141.43176391302 629010.85700975964 585966.51560836006 615396.0308610301 654238.78035573917 639472.39414298115 735441.36917484191 729967.56775384478 790832.10375092772 738415.18466590473 767279.68318170926 787982.66121958999 696557.30945544445 708684.91414879134 662404.93214145082 693932.1583457198 736348.57470896677 720614.83653363865 824573.28946825955 819066.90492717293 885106.53491568612 828960.11903823353 860584.67694939731 883404.03538114007 785055.81864651758 798677.64768332278 748994.27897403622 783134.96013206115 829561.2113112075 812900.28026102716 925739.03982762666 920292.81628279772 992094.92205040669 931965.02193587553 966689.85545343789 991897.97993352124 886033.32479084155 901350.31316801009 847992.74790782854 WC 42005 42036 42064 42095 42125 42156 42186 42217 42248 42278 42309 42339 42370 42401 42430 42461 42491 42522 42552 42583 42614 42644 42675 42705 42736 42767 42795 42826 42856 42887 42917 42948 42979 43009 43040 43070 43101 43132 43160 43191 43221 43252 43282 43313 43344 43374 43405 43435 43466 43497 43525 43556 43586 43617 43647 43678 43709 43739 43770 43800 43831 435414.32862903125 476060.97991071339 410942.5786290316 510311.06666666589 489778.64919354755 519369.26666666631 571039.90120967745 490740.86693548359 543079.06458333391 486045.46370967699 464427.54999999923 439404.58669354778 441806.20362903178 442522.41594827583 445748.35080645187 549510.50833333354 496193.10685483797 506668.71249999979 496594.6854838712 515760.27419354668 565882.83958333277 437498.80645161256 507802.00208333315 429059.7641129031 413898.94354838732 455441.74776785594 418491.07862903143 509155.45624999917 481929.70161290286 570942.56666666572 431809.93951612874 440571.03024193505 540145.90416666621 454785.34274193505 509685.06875000033 430043.58266128926 440560.2298387097 476497.97544642846 424957.57459677389 497450.20833333337 478652.2701612892 576413.19999999902 464478.21370967763 528838.79838709603 506427.24166666635 401911.4778225802 390233.10000000015 427491.74193548359 410342.6653225802 449740.15178571414 509598.76370967668 493424.7474999993 553655.76854838675 507851.0064 5833311 530798.2860887089 545259.33870967664 476237.29999999941 473526.98790322564 429811.99583333282 350092.1249999993 390903.30926265178 NABLUS WL FORECASTING RESULTS NABLUS WL FORECASTING RESULTS NABLUS WL FORECASTING RESULTS NABLUS WL FORECASTING RESULTS Nablus WL** VS WL*** WL*** Nablus y = 0.8987x + 5.9814 R= 94.37 % R² = 89.07 % 65.06351985584476 62.735899738892023 61.236238348881898 54.043496808967134 51.180623827900362 59.331957059107573 50.576924021852157 57.90334971852603 47.71926545092866 52.149955413108877 53.623033108266469 50.230903535065551 60.28890850008456 66.268035910625272 62.985649315736254 64.42853541448244 60.478394738986374 67.016124742036482 62.368140655738713 59.061002659769457 53.712625180402412 62.932971621463125 60.013498698968753 60.273418180999528 65.132101231384453 67.093242268906423 59.403171202645751 64.718895697710565 59.187771123576 574 57.826815690268475 61.627534834149685 65.033895599978493 67.466634782978744 64.637370354886798 63.130595567546109 57.677957924884808 68.648516903827726 69.516678899401484 74.983212610708648 69.998425276366603 61.876261986146666 59.820476120150445 68.439745078829219 62.392952068350752 59.013507153604287 72.226830570260105 70.239860127789044 70.196565953572815 69.287656215289914 66.930649933587077 55.424704239056645 61.652556220835855 61.091230544923356 74.114268246940881 62.908956686001233 70.906360992778659 68.119576914022375 66.702730386403175 65.859359611070218 71.172709337438022 65.343400000000003 63.734400000000001 61.29 53.6096 52.294800000000002 55.1691 50.790199999999999 56.877800000000001 49.2727 52.988900000000001 56.203299999999999 50.257899999999999 59.542900000000003 65.899799999999999 62.025500000000001 63.987900000000003 59.402500000000003 68.296599999999998 62.22 60.008899999999997 54.600299999999997 62.547400000000003 59.240200000000002 60.187899999999999 65.898899999999998 67.693299999999994 59.677900000000001 65.728700000000003 58.106099999999998 57.642499999999998 61.403700000000001 65.007499999999993 66.974699999999999 63.5535 63.567900000000002 57.511299999999999 67.500900000000001 71.818899999999999 65.371300000000005 71.441999999999993 60.824199999999998 59.588999999999999 70.999600000000001 62.6875 57.8733 65.203500000000005 67.952200000000005 66.663799999999995 67.518900000000002 66.749899999999997 54.644500000000001 58.342599999999997 61.100900000000003 75.167199999999994 63.344900000000003 70.570499999999996 70.661799999999999 68.301500000000004 66.704499999999996 68.329800000000006 WL ** WL *** NABLUS WL FORECASTING RESULTS Models WL** WL*** MAPE MAE MSE MAPE MAE MSE MA 1 7.9764 4.9254 35.6963 7.9625 4.9113 35.3132 MA 3 7.439 4.6135 32.8422 6.9158 4.2594 29.8254 MA 5 7.2962 4.579 32.1289 7.0312 4.38 28.6599 MA 7 7.2454 4.565 30.2256 6.7928 4.2685 27.4152 MA 1 C 7.9764 4.9254 35.6963 7.9625 4.9113 35.3132 MA 3 C 4.9403 3.058 13.6568 4.892 3.0231 13.7205 MA 5 C 5.3369 3.2813 16.8561 5.1134 3.1492 15.8976 MA 7 C 5.9127 3.6562 18.4335 5.6797 3.5072 17.8884 SES 6.933 4.2855 27.6758 6.6954 4.1297 26.1671 DEMA 7.727 4.7905 33.2116 7.8783 4.8869 33.6204 HW (0.8, 0.1 ,5) 6.8742 4.3271 27.8908 6.8059 4.2584 24.9593 NABLUS WL FORECASTING RESULTS NABLUS WL FORECASTING RESULTS NABLUS WL FORECASTING RESULTS ARIMA(2,1,0) (0,1, 1)12 ARIIMA forecasting for NM WL*** FORE 43831 43862 43891 43922 43952 43983 44013 44044 44075 44105 44136 44166 44197 44228 44256 44287 44317 44348 44378 44409 44440 44470 44501 44531 44562 44593 44621 44652 44682 44713 44743 44774 44805 44835 44866 44896 44927 44958 44986 45017 45047 45078 45108 45139 45170 45200 45231 45261 45292 45323 45352 45383 45413 45444 45474 45505 45536 45566 45597 45627 70.009718595745426 69.665896306026269 61.722930560666555 63.476305195051324 60.027907738944577 65.283028703658516 62.843522614452404 64.44673654719054 62.129416590872829 63.725999027531849 63.64404751564421 62.25182446107047 66.317584138014354 67.421330768874299 60.469929454448561 62.7093622677139 59.624976357199799 64.977838082655879 62.688062876200696 64.33063532110242 62.090445549910072 63.684312105023615 63.617694960383972 62.256622563985609 66.26082280060244 67.349486210667081 60.513659684785068 62.717499421708013 59.68424022269496 64.949858236020404 62.697792948743199 64.313612966366577 62.110175287012666 63.677999396010051 63.612501709403908 62.273726798073113 66.212390309376332 67.28323893752389 60.55931569312412 62.727081710698265 59.743477000144658 64.922899860027172 62.70770039982699 64.297070407939344 62.129702239797325 63.67186183128814 63.607436374072748 62.290576677875045 66.164765954024119 67.218085255632218 60.604229799753099 62.73651040863728 59.801746048563274 64.896383947531021 62.717446366962157 64.280799060551388 62.148909793384924 63.665824884539781 63.602454044946363 62.307150785329107 LOWE 43831 43862 43891 43922 43952 43983 44013 44044 44075 44105 44136 44166 44197 44228 44256 44287 44317 44348 44378 44409 44440 44470 44501 44531 44562 44593 44621 44652 44682 44713 44743 44774 44805 44835 44866 44896 44927 44958 44986 45017 45047 45078 45108 45139 45170 45200 45231 45261 45292 45323 45352 45383 45413 45444 45474 45505 45536 45566 45597 45627 60.394844436650821 58.465532622614461 50.00842275633763 51.583635106173574 48.072278337968967 53.305003536838818 50.857512491550558 52.457877153171921 50.139540196062583 51.735759593253334 51.653678482122309 50.261409162094729 54.179126853772033 55.230459237986778 48.26040099812068 50.493180354239598 47.406420095449192 52.758434311145791 50.468356565377746 52.110821008212739 49.87059268146109 51.464445472607615 51.397823414356232 50.036749263842054 53.902691658069756 54.942371401181802 48.089104912113342 50.286724661638665 47.251245735398477 52.516071421558152 50.263723292661808 51.879442339866436 49.675968615157274 51.243779856304307 51.178277575991686 49.83950102474838 53.646658557724791 54.670892824294661 47.930370336745597 50.092215852259478 47.106498246260493 52.285166906565991 50.069698214633974 51.658972110768815 49.491569631670899 51.033716974473975 50.969287144587369 49.652425887384766 53.401390799984497 54.410302655846138 47.780631379578118 49.907270601973252 46.970492917173765 52.064412153387707 49.885218026268205 51.448479136231427 49.316557174672113 50.833460594235667 50.770085587989101 49.474780840913546 UPPE 43831 43862 43891 43922 43952 43983 44013 44044 44075 44105 44136 44166 44197 44228 44256 44287 44317 44348 44378 44409 44440 44470 44501 44531 44562 44593 44621 44652 44682 44713 44743 44774 44805 44835 44866 448 96 44927 44958 44986 45017 45047 45078 45108 45139 45170 45200 45231 45261 45292 45323 45352 45383 45413 45444 45474 45505 45536 45566 45597 45627 79.624592754840023 80.866259989438078 73.437438364995472 75.368975283929075 71.983537139920188 77.261053870478207 74.829532737354256 76.435595941209158 74.119292985683074 75.716238461810363 75.634416549166104 74.242239760046203 78.456041422256675 79.612202299761819 72.679457910776435 74.925544181188201 71.843532618950405 77.197241854165966 74.907769187023646 76.550449633992102 74.310298418359054 75.904178737439608 75.837566506411719 74.476495864129163 78.618953943135125 79.75660102015236 72.938214457456795 75.148274181777367 72.11723470999145 77.383645050482656 75.13186260482459 76.747783592866725 74.544381958868058 76.112218935715788 76.04672584281613 74.70795257139784 78.778122061027872 79.895585050753112 73.188261049502643 75.361947569137044 72.38045575402883 77.560632813488354 75.345702585020007 76.935168705109874 74.767834847923751 76.310006688102305 76.245585603558126 74.928727468365324 78.928141108063741 80.025867855418298 73.427828219928074 75.565750215301307 72.632999179952776 77.728355741674335 75.549674707656109 77.113118984871349 74.981262412097735 76.498189174843901 76.434822501903625 75.139520 729744675 #REF! 43831 43862 43891 43922 43952 43983 44013 44044 44075 44105 44136 44166 44197 44228 44256 44287 44317 44348 44378 44409 44440 44470 44501 44531 44562 44593 44621 44652 44682 44713 44743 44774 44805 44835 44866 44896 44927 44958 44986 45017 45047 45078 45108 45139 45170 45200 45231 45261 45292 45323 45352 45383 45413 45444 45474 45505 45536 45566 45597 45627 1 WL*** 42005 42036 42064 42095 42125 42156 42186 42217 42248 42278 42309 42339 42370 42401 42430 42461 42491 42522 42552 42583 42614 42644 42675 42705 42736 42767 42795 42826 42856 42887 42917 42948 42979 43009 43040 43070 43101 43132 43160 43191 43221 43252 43282 43313 43344 43374 43405 43435 43466 43497 43525 43556 43586 43617 43647 43678 43709 43739 43770 43800 43831 65.343400000000003 63.734400000000001 61.29 53.6096 52.294800000000002 55.1691 50.790199999999999 56.877800000000001 49.2727 52.988900000000001 56.203299999999999 50.257899999999999 59.542900000000003 65.899799999999999 62.025500000000001 63.987900000000003 59.402500000000003 68.296599999999998 62.22 60.008899999999997 54.600299999999997 62.547400000000003 59.240200000000002 60.187899999999999 65.898899999999998 67.693299999999994 59.677900000000001 65.728700000000003 58.106099999999998 57.642499999999998 61.403700000000001 65.007499999999993 66.974699999999999 63.5535 63.567900000000002 57.511299999999999 67.500900000000001 71.818899999999999 65.371300000000005 71.441999999999993 60.824199999999998 59.588999999999999 70.999600000000001 62.6875 57.8733 65.203500000000005 67.952200000000005 66.663799999999995 67.518900000000002 66.749899999999997 54.644500000000001 58.342599999999997 61.100900000000003 75.167199999999994 63.344900000000003 70.570499999999996 70.661799999999999 68.301500000000004 66.704499999999996 68.329800000000006 70.009718595745426 43831 43862 43891 43922 43952 43983 44013 44044 44075 44105 44136 44166 44197 44228 44256 44287 44317 44348 44378 44409 44440 44470 44501 44531 44562 44593 44621 44652 44682 44713 44743 44774 44805 44835 44866 44896 44927 44958 44986 45017 45047 45078 45108 45139 45170 45200 45231 45261 45292 45323 45352 45383 45413 45444 45474 45505 45536 45566 45597 45627 43831 43862 43891 43922 43952 43983 44013 44044 44075 44105 44136 44166 44197 44228 44256 44287 44317 44348 44378 44409 44440 44470 44501 44531 44562 44593 44621 44652 44682 44713 44743 44774 44805 44835 44866 44896 44927 44958 44986 45017 45047 45078 45108 45139 45170 45200 45231 45261 45292 45323 45352 45383 45413 45444 45474 45505 45536 45566 45597 45627 DATE WL*** NABLUS WL FORECASTING RESULTS NM Losses for (2015-2019) = 14,885,168 m3 NM Losses for (2020-2024) = 18,682,243 m3 with PI=95% WL will increase by 29.4% NE2+NE3 WC FORECASTING RESULTS NE2+NE3 WC FORECASTING RESULTS   MAPE MAD MSD TA Linear 3.37765 1.02998 1.48685 TA Quadratic 3.06424 0.93527 1.2708 TA Growth 3.37231 1.02917 1.48746 TA S-Cycle       TS Decomp. 2.20053 0.66961 0.67636 MA 2 3.46284 1.05571 1.52401 MA 4 3.8239 1.16566 1.77072 MA 6 4.10684 1.25465 2.08414 MA 2 C 2.56818 0.78323 0.86036 MA 4 C 2.44477 0.74597 0.75571 MA 6 C 2.59651 0.7931 0.89308 MA 1 3.55608 1.08585 1.81212 MA 3 3.57152 1.08744 1.59581 MA 5 3.95898 1.20823 1.92907 MA 7 3.9932 1.21762 1.95502 MA 1 C 3.55608 1.08585 1.81212 MA 3 C 2.30856 0.7038 0.67734 MA 5 C 2.52225 0.77033 0.82258 MA 7 C 2.67004 0.81621 0.93198 SES 3.36651 1.02648 1.45217 DEMA 3.50009 1.0649 1.55611 HW (0.2, 0.2, 0.2) 1.97701 0.60086 0.66776 NE2+NE3 WC FORECASTING RESULTS NE2+NE3 WC FORECASTING RESULTS NE2+NE3 WC FORECASTING RESULTS Wc for ne2+ne3 (2020-2024) using Arima (2, 1, 0)(0, 1, 1)12 WC** NE2+NE3 42005 42036 42064 42095 42125 42156 42186 42217 42248 42278 42309 42339 42370 42401 42430 42461 42491 42522 42552 42583 42614 42644 42675 42705 42736 42767 42795 42826 42856 42887 42917 42948 42979 43009 43040 43070 43101 43132 43160 43191 43221 43252 43282 43313 43344 43374 43405 43435 43466 43497 43525 43556 43586 43617 43647 43678 43709 43739 43770 43800 28.989597582137524 28.911457223927997 28.287305338148013 30.132098803609054 29.792386729868781 30.549796227028121 32.063614501725539 30.203004185243493 31.527035103325684 30.556901662707102 29.473407201115464 28.907583166989852 29.265797462528067 29.54579032839802 28.932236332224154 31.044000415105664 30.797903228153757 31.99240135333768 32.261359465850376 31.614860511060545 32.756770091300815 30.298852184444144 31.314651575543856 29.595286867052145 29.898938609301336 31.110358268760461 29.545505906080642 31.526354585385938 31.129367877946883 33.043280625716505 29.556749344986937 31.149956536671116 32.378612931585977 30.616024338694523 30.631112390027514 30.014548648319 29.724013791683635 30.860513587902911 29.556000048496603 31.147876406011388 31.421467423250121 32.105009844911017 30.034879533109265 32.32569468513158 33.184230643294875 29.189940285638691 28.733173939316121 28.31264178039153 29.230982699884972 29.743858461003914 30.309543759552355 31.147876406011388 31.665860219337876 30.082103030198741 31.466485810731591 31.143546594495447 30.27556596798004 29.459774725904662 29.478467481380957 28.222532220594527 WC** NE2+NE3 42005 42036 42064 42095 42125 42156 42186 42217 42248 42278 42309 42339 42370 42401 42430 42461 42491 42522 42552 42583 42614 42644 42675 42705 42736 42767 42795 42826 42856 42887 42917 42948 42979 43009 43040 43070 43101 43132 43160 43191 43221 43252 43282 43313 43344 43374 43405 43435 43466 43497 43525 43556 43586 43617 43647 43678 43709 43739 43770 43800 43831 28.989597582137524 28.911457223927997 28.287305338148013 30.132098803609054 29.792386729868781 30.549796227028121 32.063614501725539 30.203004185243493 31.527035103325684 30.556901662707102 29.473407201115464 28.907583166989852 29.265797462528067 29.54579032839802 28.932236332224154 31.044000415105664 30.797903228153757 31.99240135333768 32.261359465850376 31.614860511060545 32.756770091300815 30.298852184444144 31.314651575543856 29.595286867052145 29.898938609301336 31.110358268760461 29.545505906080642 31.526354585385938 31.129367877946883 33.043280625716505 29.556749344986937 31.149956536671116 32.378612931585977 30.616024338694523 30.631112390027514 30.014548648319 29.724013791683635 30.860513587902911 29.556000048496603 31.147876406011388 31.421467423250121 32.105009844911017 30.034879533109265 32.32569468513158 33.184230643294875 29.189940285638691 28.733173939316121 28.31264178039153 29.230982699884972 29.743858461003914 30.309543759552355 31.147876406011388 31.665860219337876 30.082103030198741 31.466485810731591 31.143546594495447 30.27556596798004 29.459774725904662 29.478467481380957 28.222532220594527 28.942763774949643 Forecast 43831 43862 43891 43922 43952 43983 44013 44044 44075 44105 44136 44166 44197 44228 44256 44287 44317 44348 44378 44409 44440 44470 44501 44531 44562 44593 44621 44652 44682 44713 44743 44774 44805 44835 44866 44896 44927 44958 44986 45017 45047 45078 45108 45139 45170 45200 45231 45261 45292 45323 45352 45383 45413 45444 45474 45505 45536 45566 45597 45627 28.942763774949643 29.606018078562403 28.944763139296995 30.511952527600236 30.606946190042937 30.668320979305875 30.507034978225164 30.761676453028752 31.138665771825625 29.333913027227545 29.14070134770806 28.263764122328123 28.798508775207758 29.425916617350698 28.878192031405291 30.369664905355933 30.465618541288066 30.559060621761784 30.373860919461048 30.630917105314236 31.014872489286599 29.209222705514698 29.01950498731339 28.147511160321059 28.678075251188616 29.303534044853663 28.758749635968371 30.243357277786604 30.338911841942711 30.431965296215377 30.247535840642666 30.50352292820029 30.885881439313042 29.087741364361467 28.898812683344733 28.030445484169515 28.558802955642388 29.18166046224626 28.639141815147852 30.117574964435683 30.212732116557774 30.305398560928193 30.121736148622489 30.376658584271091 30.75813508800821 28.966765264870993 28.778622339428242 27.914509432835267 28.440026714324333 29.0602 93752636316 28.520031444007245 29.992315780517973 30.087769961975145 30.180053130893949 29.996459658313569 30.250321869947147 30.630211810503173 28.846956523813638 28.65893186790889 27.798412812335499 Lower 43831 43862 43891 43922 43952 43983 44013 44044 44075 44105 44136 44166 44197 44228 44256 44287 44317 44348 44378 44409 44440 44470 44501 44531 44562 44593 44621 44652 44682 44713 44743 44774 44805 44835 44866 44896 44927 44958 44986 45017 45047 45078 45108 45139 45170 45200 45231 45261 45292 45323 45352 45383 45413 45444 45474 45505 45536 45566 45597 45627 27.03273580470659 27.596245510468268 26.871381823615458 28.010444452764883 27.996258831058441 27.916437765435699 27.603236093122376 27.72043237577703 27.935728419458929 26.196905893854595 25.922089156583656 25.040903812180023 25.210995796759743 25.633623427855539 25.018426969270092 26.123418023454409 26.071739010421286 26.011176738288704 25.708693107820675 25.797641307761829 25.991419572733967 24.357908796130026 24.086849551301228 23.255195775417377 23.433113712183498 23.812774535852501 23.230042267074523 24.249344310334731 24.187445288556841 24.117928315814872 23.824840398415954 23.892962419028766 24.058026559495126 22.53201335629484 22.26691237066596 21.48473493481335 21.653095932037346 21.991254268505102 21.441738740796609 22.373812797369546 22.304372010718282 22.227980135645613 21.945728396206114 21.995812046831993 22.134514470766494 20.718580637912112 20.462561608878744 19.731949713488415 19.885659556555076 20.184593150278534 19.670255451339244 20.516817719253822 20.441840719902338 20.361042011319707 20.09277865417025 20.127507632403962 20.243238878866613 18.937820682092799 18.693473213291686 18.015652655961851 Upper 43831 43862 43891 43922 43952 43983 44013 44044 44075 44105 44136 44166 44197 44228 44256 44287 44317 44348 44378 44409 44440 44470 44501 44531 44562 44593 44621 44652 44682 44713 44743 44774 44805 44835 44866 44896 44927 44958 44986 45017 45047 45078 45108 45139 45170 45200 45231 45261 45292 45323 45352 45383 45413 45444 45474 45505 45536 45566 45597 45627 30.987746892665253 31.762157868021177 31.178125438034584 33.236095638320762 33.46185400188488 33.690697322192179 33.717083386516506 34.135793291569669 34.708832055156549 32.84656810141859 32.758952023766213 31.900684359752127 32.896523182250156 33.778472002163163 33.33342963676548 35.306120571034128 35.600000166167554 35.9021122143185 35.885582487042669 36.368886119966753 37.009225788336757 35.026762691381307 34.962300400270202 34.06904814613106 35.096192219074581 36.060355177219861 35.603279198357974 37.718985211572623 38.054848735456986 38.399007562468853 38.400775942834983 38.942156699268992 39.652447610517797 37.550869702622798 37.505935291111449 36.570424369902767 37.666910487957544 38.723089503512611 38.252515517670091 40.541517440650317 40.926065973001116 41.31901881828928 41.34376276907193 41.950776119596448 42.740539517580238 40.499531564350889 40.4743609126 66796 39.489351341188566 40.675228374618392 41.838875160971959 41.352331434760586 43.843982930849144 44.284322005378478 44.733203435942201 44.782671731645827 45.465293603756301 46.346826274710097 43.939994679733431 43.937971214791091 42.893353332347573 NE2+NE3 WL FORECASTING RESULTS   MAPE MAD MSD TA Linear 7.64432 2.05169 6.97838 TA Quadratic 7.61519 2.0368 6.75764 TA Growth 7.39469 1.99589 6.65502 TA S-Cycle 7.55453 2.03642 6.93543 TS Decomp. 7.94777 2.17202 7.196 MA 2 7.83239 2.12045 7.16009 MA 4 8.03805 2.1937 8.35275 MA 6 8.42989 2.30292 8.95838 MA 2 C 5.79496 1.57068 4.02074 MA 4 C 5.25337 1.42326 3.51112 MA 6 C 5.62239 1.52439 4.14568   MAPE MAD MSD MA 1 8.26483 2.24334 8.42993 MA 3 7.87246 2.13328 7.77255 MA 5 8.35415 2.27984 8.99425 MA 7 8.58709 2.35081 8.69985 MA 1 C 8.26483 2.24334 8.42993 MA 3 C 5.2216 1.41363 3.18226 MA 5 C 5.53014 1.49637 3.91215 MA 7 C 5.83597 1.58319 4.44594 SES opt. 7.39227 1.99974 6.73086 DEMA opt. 7.7911 2.1067 7.56455 HW (0.2, 0.2, 0.2) 7.79782 2.11106 7.5298 HW (0.9, 0.2, 0.5) 8.17926 2.23078 7.93164 HW (0.8, 0.1, 0.5) 7.99699 2.17714 7.30972 NE2+NE3 FORECASTING RESULTS This model estimates that NE2+NE3 will loss 1,994,174 m3 between (2020-2024). Results says that WL m3 ’s will be more than the WC m3 ’s for these PZ’s. These results should push NM to improve its performance. TYPE OF LOSSES FEMA ANALYSIS Detection Rate Rank Description 1-2 Very high probability that the defect will be detected. Verification and/or controls will almost certainly detect the existence of a deficiency or defect 3-4 High probability that the defect will be detected. Verification and/or controls have a good chance of detecting the existence of a deficiency/defect 5-7 Moderate probability that the defect will be detected. Verification and/or controls are likely to detect the existence of a deficiency or defect 8-9 Low probability that the defect will be detected. Verification and/or control not likely to detect the existence of a deficiency or defect. 10 Very low (or zero) probability that the defect will be detected. Verification and/or controls will not or cannot detect the existence of a deficiency/defect. Losses Type Rank Customer meters 4 Water theft 7 Leakage of pipes between tanks house connection   6 Leakage and overflow of tanks 1 FEMA ANALYSIS Failure Rate rate Description 1 Very unlikely 2 Remote 3 occasional 4 probable 5 frequent Losses Type Rank Customer meters 4 Water theft 2 Leakage of pipes 3 Leakage and overflow of tanks 1 FEMA ANALYSIS Severity Ranking Rank Severity class 10 catastrophic 7-9 critical 4-6 major 1-3 minor Losses Type Rank Note Customer meters 9 cost Water theft 9 cost Leakage of pipes 10 Quality& cost Leakage and overflow of tanks 10 Quality&cost FEMA ANALYSIS Pressure control pipe size PRVs RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PIPES LEAKAGE REDUCTION Pipes Isolation 3. Monitor network activities RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PIPES LEAKAGE REDUCTION 4. wireless sensor networks 5. Increase metering 6. educational campaign 7. Rehabilitation of pipes and connections PROMETHEE Method: Preference Ranking Organization Method for Enrichment Evaluations LEAKAGE MANAGEMENT STRATEGY OF WATER NETWORK 1. Identification of alternative PROCEDURE OF PROMETHEE METHOD 2. Identification of decision-makers PROCEDURE OF PROMETHEE METHOD CODE Decision-makers DM1 Nablus Municipality representative DM2 Consultant—Engineer (technician who assesses the system’s hydraulic situation) DM3 Environment Agency (professional with twofold interest, to guarantee suitable conditions, being the reduction of leakage itself beneficial for the environment, and to avoid environmental impacts, because the way in which leakage reduction is achieved can provoke impacts). DM4 Community representative (represents the citizens’ interests—wanting to receive water under normal pressure and to avoid a price increase) 3. Identification and assessment of relevant criteria PROCEDURE OF PROMETHEE METHOD Criterion Description Cr1 Cost (minimize) The cost to implement the alternative. The lower cost, the most preferable the alternative. The values are expressed in dollar currency ($) Cr2 Benefit period (maximize) Useful life-span of the alternative. This time is measured in months. The higher the time, the more preferable the alternative Cr3 Economic-financial balance (maximize) Criterion reflecting the measurement of improvement of the company’s financial health by the potential of the alternative to increase revenue and to have as consequence a significant increase on the profit Cr4 Effects in reduction of waste (maximize) Reflects the potential of the alternative to reduce the water waste (inducing water conservation) Cr5 Environmental benefits (maximize) Reflects the influence of the alternative in protecting the environment, favoring those activities that degrade the water resources less Cr6 Maintenance and operation conditions (maximize) Seeks the more efficient identification of leaks, as well as the decrease in time needed to repair a leak. It also treats the reduction of the high pressure in the networks Cr7 Social acceptability (maximize) Seeks to represent the repercussion of the establishment of each alternative inside communities, understanding the importance of the rational use of water 4. Judgment of the alternatives in relation to the criteria 5. Aggregation of results PROCEDURE OF PROMETHEE METHOD CONCLUSION RECOMMENDATION image1.png image2.jpeg image3.jpg image4.jpg image5.jpg image6.jpg image7.jpg image8.png image9.emf image10.png image11.png image12.png image13.png image14.png image15.png image16.png image17.png image18.png image19.png image20.png image21.png image22.png image23.png image24.png image25.png image26.png image27.png image28.png image29.png image30.png image31.png image32.png image33.png image34.png image35.png image36.png image37.png image38.png image39.emf Item / Functi on Potential Failure Mode(s) Potential Effect(s) of Failure Sev Potential Cause(s)/ Mechanism(s) of Failure Prob Controls/verific ation Det RPN Recommended Action(s) water losses costumer meters Inaccurate readings cause an increase in the cost. 9 old customer meters, no preventive maintenance 4 monthly tours and complaints 4 144 invest in more modern meters, Water Audit, modules for maintenance, work orders, inventory, staff training, Preventive maintenance plan water theft scarcity, rationing, increased prices 9 fraud and illegal connections, high price of water, 2 customers complain 7 126 Monitoring the consumption of the meter in cooperation with the Department of Statistics by comparing the average need of the number of individuals (number of individuals * average consumption) with the actual invoice leakage of pipes Poor water quality, warped and stained walls of pipes which can be financially harmful 10 high pressure of supplied water, old pipes, corrosion of pipes 3 input and output meters for pipes leakage between tanks, no control on house connection 6 180 monitoring minimum flow night, change pipes material, pressure control, pipes Isolation. leakage and over flow of tanks Poor water quality, warped and stained walls of tanks which can be financially harmful 10 high pressure of supplied water, corrosion of tanks. 1 For each tank, there is input and output meter 1 10 pressure control, Use of wear - resistant material, preventive maintenance image40.png image41.png image42.jpeg image43.png image44.png image45.png image46.png