An-Najah National University Faculty of Graduate Studies Developing Non-Industrial Buildings Energy Performance Indicators in Nablus city By Razan Abed Assaf Supervisor Dr. Mohammed Al-Sayed This Thesis is Submitted in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Master of Engineering Management, Faculty of Graduate Studies, An-Najah National University, Nablus-Palestine. 2019 III Dedication To my father PROF. ABED ASSAF who taught me how to never stop asking for knowledge and to be always ambitious. To my beloved mother the one she never gave up on my ability, she was always there for me. To my brother eng. Basel Assaf (May his soul rest in peace) the only one encourage me to continue All my family, my brothers, my husband and my friends thank you for everything IV Acknowledgment The first and final gratitude is to Allah who gave me the strength and determination to continue this work, who gave me the ability to endure all the difficulties and challenges to successfully complete this work. This work would not be completed if not for the help and directions from my department professors and my supervisor Dr. Mohammad Alsayed, who I would like to thank for his patience, understanding and precious time. A special thank for my family and friends whom without their help and support I would not have been where I am now. Also I would like to thank AlNajah University, the staff and everyone who taught me how to make this happen Finally, I would like to thank my mother, the greatest mother on earth, my father, who never spares me any of expertise and help. Thank you to my brothers for their effort, support, and standing by my side. Thanks to my husband and daughter for their patience and support. V اإلقرار رسالة تحت عنوان:ال ةأدناه مقدم ةالموقعانا Developing Non-Industrial Buildings Energy Performance Indicators in Nablus city ليو إشارة باستثنـاء ما تمت اإل ,أقر بأن ما اشتممت عميــو ىذه الرسـالة ىو نتـاج جيـدي الخاص و بحثي أي بحث عممي أو أ ,ي درجة عمميةأنيل وأن ىذه الرسالة لم تقدم من قبل ل ,حيثما ورد خــرى. أو بحثية أي مؤسسة تعميمية أل Declaration The work provided in this thesis, unless otherwise referenced, is the researcher's own work, and has not been submitted elsewhere for any other degree of qualification. Student's Name: :اسم الطالب Signature: :التوقيع Date: :التاريخ VI Table of Contents No Contents Pages Dedication III Acknowledgment IV Declaration V List of Tables VIII List of Figures X List of Abbreviations XI Abstract XII Chapter One: Introduction 1 1.1 Chapter overview 1 1.2 Nablus and non-industrial buildings 3 1.3 research problem 6 1.4 research objective and expected outcome 7 1.5 research question 8 1.6 significance of the study 9 1.7 Thesis structure 9 Chapter Two: Literature Review 11 2.1 Chapter overview 11 2.2 Energy indicator EUI and ECI and their importance 13 2.3 Overview of two energy management indicators 14 2.4 Energy intensive is a good indicator for non-industrial building 17 2.5 Energy audit and energy management 18 2.6 Some of non-industrial building in Nablus and their Energy Profile 20 2.7 Analysis background 22 Chapter Three: Research Methodology 25 3.1 Introduction 25 3.2 Research type 25 3.3 Research methodology 25 3.4 Sample size 27 3.5 Research sample size 29 3.6 Questionnaire 30 3.7 Pilot study 31 3.8 Data analysis approach 32 3.9 T test & ANOVA test 34 Chapter four: Results and discussion 35 4.1 Introduction 35 4.2 Questionnaire analysis 35 4.3 Interview analysis 41 4.4 Quantitative analysis and discussion 42 VII Chapter Five: Conclusion and Recommendations 85 5.5 Conclusions 85 5.2 Limitations 87 5.3 Recommendations 88 References 89 Appendices 95 ب انمهخض VIII List of Tables No Title Pages Table 1 Classification of members of the general authority by sector 4 Table 2 Number of establishment of different sectors in the city of Nablus 5 Table 3 Distribution of the sample among different categories 28 Table 4 Expert and arbitrator who reviewed the questionnaire 35 Table 5 Questions for each category 33 Table 6 ECU and EUI for all categories 36 Table 7 Questions related to each category 42 Table 8 descriptive statistics for Companies EUI 44 Table 9 Tolerance interval for Companies EUI 45 Table 10 Regression for EUI vs. Conditioned area 46 Table 11 one way ANOVA EUI for Company 46 Table 12 Standard Error 46 Table 13 Predicted EUI VS Real measures 47 Table 14 Descriptive statistics for Companies ECI 49 Table 15 Tolerance probability for Companies ECI 50 Table 16 Regression ECI and Conditioned area 50 Table 17 ANOVA for Companies ECI 55 Table 18 Standard error 55 Table 19 Actual ECI VS predicted ECI 55 Table 20 Energy VS condition area 54 Table 21 ANOVA Energy for company 54 Table 22 Standard error 54 Table 23 Predicted and actual energy 54 Table 24 Descriptive Statistics for Hospitals EUI 56 Table 25 Probability for Hospital EUI 56 Table 26 Regression Statistics 57 Table 27 ANOVA EUI for Hospital 57 Table 28 Standard errors 57 Table 29 Residual Output 57 Table 30 Descriptive Statistics for Hospitals ECI 59 Table 31 Regression for ECI V.S Conditioned Area for hospitals 60 Table 32 ANOVA ECI for hospital 60 Table 33 Standard Error 60 Table 34 RESIDUAL OUTPUT 60 Table 35 Regression Statistics 62 Table 36 Standard error 63 Table 37 RESIDUAL OUTPUT 63 Table 38 Descriptive statistics for Restaurants and Hotels EUI 64 IX Table 39 Probability Restaurants and Hotels EUI 65 Table 40 Regression 65 Table 41 ANOVA EUI for Restaurants and Hotels 65 Table 42 Standard error 65 Table 43 Predicted EUI VS Real measures 66 Table 44 Descriptive Statistics for Restaurants and Hotels ECI 68 Table 45 Probability for Restaurants and Hotels 69 Table 46 Regression Statistics 69 Table 47 ANOVAECI for Restaurants and Hotels 69 Table 48 Standard error 70 Table 49 RESIDUAL OUTPUT 70 Table 50 Regression statistics 72 Table 51 ANOVA Energy for Restaurants and Hotels 72 Table 52 Standard error 72 Table 53 RESIDUAL OUTPUT 73 Table 54 Descriptive statistics for Schools EUI 74 Table 55 Probability for Schools EUI 75 Table 56 Regression Statistics 75 Table 57 ANOVA EUI For School 75 Table 58 Standard Error 75 Table 59 RESIDUAL OUTPUT 76 Table 60 Descriptive Statistics for Schools ECI 78 Table 61 Probability for Schools ECI 79 Table 62 Regression 79 Table 63 ANOVA ECI for School 79 Table 64 Standard Error 80 Table 65 Predicted ECI VS Real measures 80 Table 66 Regression statistics 83 Table 67 ANOVA Energy for School 83 Table 68 Standard Error 83 Table 69 RESIDUAL OUTPUT 83 X List of Figures No Title Pages Figure 1 Classification of member of general authority by sector 4 Figure 2 Change in primary energy intensity in selected countries and regions 52 Figure 3 Primary energy use in U.S. commercial building in 2010 22 Figure 4 Normal probability plot for Companies EUI 45 Figure 5 EUI and conditioned area 47 Figure 6 New EUI and conditioned area in companies 49 Figure 7 Normal Probability plot for Companies ECI 50 Figure 8 Actual ECI VS predicted ECI 52 Figure 9 The relationship between actual energy and the predicted energy 53 Figure 10 Predicted EUI VS Real measures 58 Figure 11 New EUI and energy in Hospitals 58 Figure 12 Normal Probability plot for Hospitals 59 Figure 13 The relationship Predicted ECI VS Real measures 65 Figure 14 New ECI and energy in Hospitals 65 Figure 15 Predicted Energy VS Real measures 63 Figure 16 Normal Probability plot for Restaurants and Hotels EUI 64 Figure 17 Predicted EUI VS Real measures 66 Figure 18 New EUI and Energy 67 Figure 19 Normal probability plot for Restaurants and Hotels 68 Figure 20 Predicted ECI VS Real measures 70 Figure 21 New ECI and conditioned area 75 Figure 22 The relationship between: Predicted Energy VS Real measures 73 Figure 23 Normal Probability Plot for Schools EUI 74 Figure 24 Predicted EUI VS Real measures 77 Figure 25 New EUI and conditioned area 77 Figure 26 Normal probability plot for Schools ECI 79 Figure 27 Predicted ECI VS Real measures 85 Figure 28 New ECI and conditioned area 82 Figure 29 The relationship between Predicted Energy VS Real measures 84 XI List of Abbreviations CCBFC Canadian Commission on Building and Fire Codes CI Confidence Interval CT Computerized Tomography ECI Energy Cost Index EIM Energy Institutions Managements EM Energy Management EUI Energy Utilization Index GDP Gross Domestic Product MRI Magnetic Resonance Imaging PI Probability Interval OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development SDPD Seattle Department of Planning and Development TI Tolerance Interval US United State XII Developing Non-Industrial Buildings Energy Performance Indicators in Nablus city By Razan Abed Assaf Supervisor Dr. Mohammed Al-sayed Abstract Scientific evidence indicates the seriousness of energy loss. Given the importance of energy, the global direction is toward energy conservation. Studies showed the amount of energy loss and big energy consumption in Palestine. From that point, this study was conducted, in order to adapt and develop energy performance indicators, study the main variables affecting those indicators. The study was conducted in the city of Nablus because it is the economic capital of Palestine. Energy performance indicators, ECI and EUI were calculated. ECI is the average annual consumption of energy divided by conditioned area, while EUI is the average annual payment divided by size. After calculating both indicators, variables affecting those indicators were studied with special focus on size multiplied by occupancy rare, which was termed conditioned area. The methodology for this study was to collect data through questionnaires and interviews; the sample was 78 facilities, distributed into categories including companies, hospitals, hotels, restaurants, and schools. After data collection, statistical analysis including descriptive and differential analysis was conducted, descriptive statistics of the questionnaire showed that multiple variables could affect energy indicators, which should be studied XIII in the future, those variables include an age of the facility and used equipment. Results indicated a direct relation between conditioned area and energy (Hotels p=.005, schools p=.008, companies p=.0005) this relationship between energy and conditioned area reflect the relation with energy indicators. The researcher mainly recommends studying every category separately taking into consideration all variables affecting energy indicators, and the extent of their effect on both ECI and EUI. As a secondary recommendation, the researcher encourages facilities to register and save their energy data, and following energy conservation strategies. 1 Chapter One Introduction 1.1 Chapter overview This chapter gives a general idea about this research; it includes an introduction, definition and objectives, the hypothesis and research questions, the importance of the study and finally the research structure. In order to deal with Global Energy challenges and its corresponding negative environmental impacts, so what is energy. Simply, energy can be defined as the ability to do work. According to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)) 2012), as an economy grows, demands for energy increases rapidly, thus energy consumption increases. Forecasts show that by 2050 the world economy will become four times larger than today and it is projected to use 80% more energy (OECD, 2012). So we need a good quality of statistics to understand the underlying trends in energy consumption. Since energy use has a big impact on our environment, which can be negative or positive, many civilized governments support sustainable development in their societies which will benefit current and future generations. 2 One of the most basic steps to counter this situation is to start developing, monitoring, and improving energy performance indicators. energy indicator such as energy utilization index (EUI) and energy cost index (ECI), the first one talks about energy used per one unit of area. Energy index will help to further study many parameters like energy used per worker; energy used occupancy energy effect by age buildings, the used equipment and the type of used equipment’s. The second type is energy cost; here will talk about the cost aspect of energy An accurate and a holistic understanding of Energy Indicators (EnPIs), which are easily understood, quantitative measure of performance will increase efficiency, decrease intensity, increase understanding of improvement, define abnormal situations, implement projects that reduce energy consumption, increase production output, and capture cumulative impact of all projects by statistically isolating various influences on energy use. The proposed research aims to develop Palestinian local community energy consumption as Energy Utilization Index (EUI) and Energy Cost Index (ECI) and its direct and indirect effects on their local environment and economy. Moreover, aims to calculate and analyse the average of EUI and ECI for Nablus city, in such a way, these indicators could be assumed as a baseline for determining potential energy savings opportunities for various buildings types, which could help experts, engineers, accountants, and policy makers in defining better solutions and developing appropriate plans. 3 1.2 Nablus and non-industrial buildings Nablus is a Palestinian city, with an area of 12700 acres, it is considered one of the economically active cities, it plays an important role in the economy despite occupation and siege. In fact, despite those challenges the city of Nablus is considered the economical capital of Palestine, it was a center for Arab and Palestinian banks in the west bank before most of them were transferred to Ramallah with the establishment of the Palestinian Authority there, Nablus is also famous for the construction of its markets, especially in the Kasbah district of the Old City. It is also famous for its sweets. The City of Nablus occupies the first place among Palestinian cities in terms of non-industrial facility population According to 2016 statistics; Nablus had a population of 153,061 people with a population density of 540 per Km2. (Nablus Chamber of Commerce, 2011). According to the 2009 records of the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics, the number of industrial and commercial facilities in Nablus District was about 13,742 distributed among different sectors (private, public and civil as shown in (Table 1) (Figure 1). 4 Nablus Chamber of Industry and Trade Table 1: Classification of members of the general authority by sector Sectors Number of members Commercial sector 3621 Industrial sector 969 Services 383 Careers 151 Construction 183 Figure 1: Classification of member of general authority by sector. In addition, the overall number of workers reached 38,542 between employers and workers. Recently, a new sector emerged in Nablus pertained to services including hotels, restaurants, stock-exchange, and communications, being managed with total of 4000 workers distributed among 900 services’ utilities. (Nablus Chamber of Commerce, 2011) commercial sector industrial sector services careers 5 Table 2: Number of establishment of different sectors in the city of Nablus Economic indicators showed a daily loss of Nablus District during 2002- 2008 estimated at $ 1.2 million per year of which industrial sector share was 42%, services sector was 30%, the agriculture sector was 20%, and tourism sector was 2% (Nablus Chamber of Commerce, 2011). Today, and upon the reinforcement of the security, it was clearly noticed that a number of new service facilities were opened including restaurants, public parks, and different commercial centres. Nablus enjoys the high potential for being the leader of Palestinian industry and commercial activities even in the hardship and worst situations. It is, with no doubts, the business incubator and the economic capital of Palestine. All this data indicates the importance of this study especially in Nablus, given that it is a non-industrial city with a large number of non-industrial buildings. Also, the importance of energy conservation in Nablus which is essential for the provision of environmental conservation and development 6 in the future. This study is concerned specifically with the city of Nablus hoping it might have a clear, positive and useful impact on its economy, given the financial and economic deficits the city has been suffering from in the last few years, hopefully, the conservation of energy and finding the causes of energy loss will have a role in improving the economy in the future. 1.3 Research problem In the field of energy, the Palestinian economy and especially energy situation is a bit more complicated because Local environmental legislation is limited and the lack of real data describing the current situation. Thus, Palestinian decision-makers do not have a clear vision regarding the performance of their energy consuming systems. Having a clear and controllable vision regarding energy consumption will enhance and improve the economy which will benefit the environment which will also benefit the society as it removes obstacles and maintains sustainability Palestinian decision-makers do not have a reference point to know how much they consume and how their lifestyle sustainability and its consequences on their environment and local economy. In addition, the proposed project aims to facilitate business owners’ energy conservation decisions. However, an effective energy conservation and management program should begin from understanding current energy consumption situation. Based on that, comparison with average indicators gives a good understanding regarding the current situation and potential saving that 7 could be achieved. In this context, EUI is one of the most powerful indicators. It sums up that all building energy consumption per year (electrical, gas, oil fuel …etc.) then dividing over conditioned space area, in such a way, a kJ/m2 or kWh/m2 indicator then be calculated. In addition, the ECI which is the same as EUI except that its numerator contains the annual energy cost, thus, the indicator will have the unit $/m2. Both indicators will be calculated based on the better comparison between buildings, assessing energy management programs and estimating possible saving opportunities. In order to do so, a statistical survey is conducted. An interview- based Questionnaire is used, which aims to accomplish the main objectives of the study which is targeting different building structures to calculate its EUI and ECI. To do it effectively, the US building in the same context classification which includes at least the following subdivisions: all buildings, education buildings, food sales, food services, health, lodging, retail, office, assembly, safety, mosques and churches, service, warehouse, and others will be used as a guide to establish our targeted building subdivisions 1.4 Research objective and outcome The main objectives of this research proposal are: 1. Calculating the average value for EUI and ECI for Nablus city 2. Define general trends building energy consumption in Nablus. 8 3. Establishing a reliable data base of information to be used by buildings owners as a reference point to estimate possible savings 4. Identifying factors that have a direct effect on energy indicators This research has been started so as to reach the following outcomes: 1. Estimated EUI ECI for non-industrial building in Nablus 2. Estimated CI and TI with 95% level of significance 3. Description of the energy consumption trends and behaviour for non- industrial building. 4. Energy indicators with tables and figures displaying the variations in order to use it in the future 1.5 Research questions To reach the research outcome, the researcher needs to find answers for the following questions: 1. How much energy consumption in EUI and ECI? 2. How much the variance between non-industrial buildings with respect to the two indicators? 3. What are the significant difference between categories? or can we sum it in under one category called building 9 4. How can we define a specific relationship between energy indicators, area, size, occupancy rate and number of employee? 1.6 Significance of the study Through the development of energy indicators, energy will be conserved and opportunities to decrease cost will be available, thus increasing competition and profits of the company. Also, energy audit plays a key role for the benefit of a company, because it provides opportunities to learn what needs to be done to develop and improve energy conservation rates. The first step for any company in energy auditing is to calculate basic indicators that will be studied here such as EUI and ECI. The outcome of these indicators includes tables and statistical values that would be a reference for any company or organization in order to know their place in terms of energy conservation. doing useful and is there any way to increase energy conservation. 1.7 Thesis structure This thesis consists of five chapters. An outline of each chapter is given: Chapter 1 gives a general idea about this research; includes an overview of Palestinian situation and particular focus on energy use in Palestine, and the encompass of Nablus and non-industrial buildings as the main problem and objectives, and research questions, the importance of the study and finally the research structure. 10 chapter 2 represents, previous research work including an overview of previous studies about energy indicators. This chapter covers various aspects of building energy performance and defines the two indicators EUI and ECI, from the relationships of energy use and different building characteristics, also focused on the energy audit and energy levels to energy conservation and retrofitting in building finally talked about the sector that we will talk about Chapter 3describes the research type by defining population of sample size which would be 78 and data analysis approach by using conducting quantitative interviews and questionnaire for data collection to get the average for ECI and EUI for non-industrial building. Chapter 4 presents and discusses our results; each result is presented separately with a comprehensive discussion. Chapter 5 talks about the conclusions and recommendations and some of the limitations by defining difficulties from gathering data and information 11 Chapter Two Literature Review This chapter reviews the previous studies regarding energy saving in buildings, energy management and energy audit and how can we develop indicators to control the energy consumption by benchmarking between each categories in the non-industrial buildings 2.1 Chapter overview This chapter reviews the previous studies regarding energy consumption and their analysis of empirical and theoretical data in order to demonstrate the importance of energy saving in nonindustrial buildings. Also, by studying two indicators the EUI and ECI we can know if we want to reduce energy consumption which leads to the first step in an energy audit, how much we consume, are we above average and out of limit energy. Many authors discussed the positive relationship between the management and efficiency of energy consumption. Bloom et al. (2010) were able to find a positive relationship between good management practices and productivity/energy efficiency which was later defined as the positive impact in EM (Energy Management), suggesting that well-run firms use energy more efficiently. Also, Cowan et al. (2010) further noted that especially energy consumption and conservation qualifies for setting measurable targets which are the basic line for energy management practice. Thus, good management results in more efficient energy 12 conservation. One of the first steps of good management is calculating quantities and comparing them with indicators that we will study and know what can be done, developed and adjusted for proper conservation, which is within the levels of energy. This was also noticed later on the global report (energy efficiency services limited, 2017) which reported an improvement in energy efficiency by 13% between 2000 and 2016. Changes in the global primary energy intensity are influenced by improvements in energy efficiency as well as changes in economic structure, such as the movement of economic activity away from energy-intensive industry towards less intensive service sectors Thus can be noted that countries that have developed the proper management of energy conservation have achieved a significant increase in energy efficiency and this shows that countries adopt energy management to improve the efficiency of consumption, as shown in (Figure 2) Figure 2: Change in primary energy intensity in selected countries and regions. 13 2.2 Energy indicator EUI and ECI and their importance The indicator called Energy Utilization Index (EUI) is one of the most powerful indicators. sums up all building energy consumption per year (electrical, gas, oil fuel …etc.) then dividing over conditioned space area, in such a way, a kJ/m2 or kWh/m2 indicator will be calculated. In addition, the Energy Cost Index (ECI) which is the same as EUI except that its numerator contains the annual energy costs, the benefits from the two indicators are to know how much we consume, is there a lot of energy loss in buildings, what is the solution and hopefully working on raising awareness of global environmental challenges in the future by developing and adopting a number of environmental legislation. However, local environmental legislation is limited, and environmental problems are not assumed with high priority in comparison with any political issue either internally or externally. In addition, there is a lack of real data describing the current situation. Thus, Palestinian decision-makers do not have a clear vision regarding their lifestyle sustainability, and its consequences on their environment and the local economy. EUI is a very important energy performance indicator, many studies discussed the effects of establishing the EUI in buildings and how after knowing the average EUI for each commercial building can save energy 14 2.3 Overview of two energy management indicators: There are several studies connecting EUI with saving environment energy performance and ECI with economic performance (Allcott and Greenstone, 2012; Bloom et al., 2010; Cetindamar and Husoy, 2007; Cowan et al., 2010; Enderle and Tavis, 1998; Porter and Linde, 1995). In their paper, Enderle and Tavis (1998) suggested a balanced concept for organizations, combining economic, social and environmental responsibilities. Savings in energy consumptions, in particular, are found to make both economic and environmental sense. They further argued that environmental and economic responsibilities partly overlap when comes to the use of energy, since energy savings can be justified from a purely economic as well as a noneconomic point of view. While Enderle and Tavis (1998) remained cautious and reported the overlap being only partial, other authors such as Porter, and Lindeand Cetindam (1995) argued more strongly and suggested a ‘win-win’ situation, They suggested that well placed environmental standards and goals in organizations will trigger innovations that will subsequently lower overall costs. Similarly, Cetindamar and Husoy (2007) noted that environmentally sound measures are often at the same time economically sound and have the potential to result in higher profits in the long run. This theoretical assumption has been tested and confirmed by Al-Tuwaijri et al. (2004) who found a significant positive relationship between environmental and economic performance. 15 Al-Tuwaijri et al. (2004) further suggest the environmental performance and economic performance are closely linked to management quality in energy management. Indeed, management seems to have realized the importance of tackling energy usage and energy efficiency. Bloom et al. (2010) were able to find a positive relationship between good management practices and productivity/energy efficiency which later defined as the positive impact in EM, suggesting that well-run firms use energy more efficiently. Similarly, Montabon et al. (2007) argued that environmental management practices are positively related to firm performance. In order to reach environmental and other organizational goals, Waggoner et al. (1999) and Caldelli and Parmigiani (2004) perceived exclusively financial performance measures as not sufficient. by supporting the inclusion of ECI performance indicators in organizational performance measurement energy systems. Authors have found support for the notion that environmental accounting can positively influence an organization’s ability to estimate and control environmental costs (Buhr, 1998; Caldelli and Parmigiani, 2004; Li and McConomy, 1999). Dingwerth and Eichinger (2010) argued that collecting data will raise awareness and could set internal processes within the organization in motion. Caldelli and Parmigiani (2004) likewise suggested that the inclusion of environmental goals in a performance measurement system will help manage these as well as to report on transition. They stated that environmental accounting is used to improve the organizational oversight 16 over impact and effects the organization’s activities have on the environment and with respect to energy. Cowan et al. (2010) further noted, that especially energy consumption and conservation qualifies for setting measurable targets which are the basic line for energy management and it is practice, on the other hand, EUI is very important performance energy indicator, lots of studies talked about it after establishing the EUI in building and how after knowing the average EUI for each commercial building thought that now we can save energy by knowing the EUI for each commercial building and compared with control chart to be in a control limit so can control the use of energy, but In theory, the approach has merit, but most previous attempts to use simple targets for commercial buildings have failed (Goldstein and Eley 2014). Two major drawbacks to an EUI target approach are difficulty in setting an appropriate and fair target and difficulty in having a reliable prediction of building energy use. Setting fair and appropriate targets can be a substantial challenge. EUI targets can be developed based on the actual energy use of typical existing buildings or by using prototype building models normalized for the climate. Unfortunately, few buildings are typical. Even simple buildings vary in function, number, and frequency of occupants, plug and process loads, hours of operations, and other energy services. That makes fixed targets either too easy or too difficult to meet (Goldstein and Eley 2014) 17 2.4 Energy intensive is a good indicator for non-industrial building Commercial consumers are defined to be all non-residential consumers, with the exception of users classified as a large industry. Studies in many countries revealed that non industrial buildings are one of the most energy- intensive building categories as mentioned in (global energy efficiency 2017) the movement of economic activity away from energy-intensive industry towards less intensive service sectors, Changes in global primary energy intensity are influenced by improvements in energy efficiency as well as changes in economic structure Energy efficiency indicators, or more generally energy performance indicators, give the links between energy use and some relevant monetary or physical indicators measuring the demand for energy services. Generally, energy efficiency indicators are intensities, presented as a ratio between energy consumption (measured in energy units) and activity data (measured in physical units) (IEA, 2014), as shown in the following equation: 𝐸𝑛𝑒𝑟𝑔𝑦𝑒𝑓𝑓𝑖𝑐𝑖𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑦𝐼𝑛𝑑𝑖𝑐𝑎𝑡𝑜𝑟= 𝐸𝑛𝑒𝑟𝑔𝑦𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑠𝑢𝑚𝑝𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛/𝐴𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑖𝑡𝑦𝑑𝑎𝑡𝑎 Through this study, we will find the correlation between variables like the number of workers and occupancy rate with EUI, which will provide the opportunity to develop energy indicators to calculate the national GDP and to develop further indicators 18 2.5 Energy audit and energy management The main point of choosing a level of an energy audit is the right level from the first time to reduce effort and cost. Based on the American Society of Heating, Refrigerating and Air-Conditioning Engineers (ASHRAE) (ASHRAE, 2015)) defines three levels of audits. Each audit level builds on the previous level. As audit complexity increases, so do thoroughness of the site assessment, the amount of data collected and the details provided in the final audit report. This effort can translate into higher energy savings. Each level depends on the next; some companies cannot identify its place between levels of an energy audit, despite the availability of money, time and resources. In this study we will attempt to identify those levels by defining them according to the American society of energy engineers, and identifying energy indicators which will make it easier for business owner to find out if there is an excessive use of energy, why there is an excess and what is the easiest and comprehensible plan for energy audit. Those levels are: Level I: Site Assessment or Preliminary Audits identify no-cost and low- cost energy saving opportunities (ASHRAE,2015), only a month to month comparison of the general energy use will be done including electric bills and gas bills, in order to know a general energy, use of the company, gives a general view of potential capital improvements. Activities include an assessment of energy bills and a brief site inspection of your building. Is there a reasonable reason for energy loss in a specific month, which is an 19 easy and inexpensive process? Through this study, by identifying the energy indicators (EUI, ECI) we can compare a company general energy use with other companies from the same field which in turn gives us a broader indicator for energy consumption and if we have energy loss or not. Level II: Energy Engineering Analysis Audits identify energy lost cost and low-cost opportunities, and also provide EEM table and what are the recommendations in line with financial plans and potential capital-intensive energy savings opportunities based on (ASHRAE,2015). Level II audits include an in-depth analysis of energy costs, energy usage and building characteristics and a more refined survey of how energy is used in a building. This process is very important but also very expensive, where an external team would be assigned to do the audit, yet it is a big step in the right direction for big companies. Level III: Detailed Analysis of Capital-Intensive Modification Audits provides solid recommendations and financial analysis for major capital investments(ASHRAE,2015). In addition to Level, I and Level II activities, Level III audits include monitoring, data collection, and engineering analysis. It is a very expensive process that could last for months. It is very comprehensible, it takes a detailed look at the company energy loss plans, and it looks for every reason for energy loss and what can be done to conserve energy. Engineers will help in setting the appropriate budget and levels of energy. 20 By identifying energy audit levels, we should note that the development of performance indicators which is the main purpose of this study will serve the interest of auditing. The first level of auditing depends mainly on consumption and comparison, and through this study, we will make it easier and give everyone the opportunity to start the audit process and give them an idea about the amount of consumption 2.6 Some of non-industrial building in Nablus and their Energy Profile by chose a classification according to the US classification, did not take it fully but relied on the same basis for the selection process Restaurant’s: According to data available from the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), food service buildings are the most energy-intensive of all commercial buildings Estimates of energy consumption attribute 50% of an average restaurant’s energy use to the preparation and storage of food (Clark Energy Cooperative, 2002). Both full service and fast food restaurants pose significant challenges to HVAC systems because the presence of people and the activities of food preparation and presentation creates high heat gain; ventilation air requirements are high; kitchen doors must be isolated; and there are typically a large influxes of outdoor air through entrances during peak hours Therefore, considered to include restaurants and hotels with conditioning and heating systems and refrigerators. The sample was taken from the city of Nablus randomly and here is worth mentioning that the hotels have been added because the hotels 21 here are only for accommodation not for entertainment, hotels include rooms and restaurants. Hospitals: The electric loads of hospitals are largely lighting, HVAC, elevators, medical equipment (such as CT scan and MRI), computers, copiers and other office equipment. Also, gas and diesel use in the hospital is higher compared with other establishments, thus, the sample collected from hospitals is higher and more holistic. Hospitals also include health centers like eye centers, dialysis centers, fertility centres, and outpatient clinics. Taking into consideration that hospitals as a building and equipment’s are the same; the sample was taken from hospitals in Nablus. Office Buildings (Schools, Universities, office, company,) In the U.S., commercial buildings share 19% of the primary energy use among all sectors in 2010 (U.S. Energy Information Administration, 2011; 2012). Figure (3) below shows the breakdown of primary energy use in commercial buildings by end-use services. The figure demonstrates that five energy services accounted for 79% of primary energy use in buildings in 2010. These are thermal comfort space conditioning that includes space heating, cooling and ventilation (39%), illumination (20%), sanitation and hygiene, including water heating (4%), communication and entertainment electronics including televisions, computers, and office equipment (8%), and provision of food, refrigeration and cooking (8%) (U.S. Department of Energy, 2008). The remaining 21% includes service station equipment, telecommunications 22 Figure 3: Primary energy use in U.S. commercial building in 2010. By studying the establishments in Nablus city the following took in the inclusion criteria: The fact that the commercial sector represents the economy of the city, a great deal of attention was on including companies from the city taking into account the higher percentage of energy use among non-industrial buildings in Nablus. But in our case divide the schools alone because of the number of schools in the city. The rest of the classification was according to the USA classification which includes buildings of university, companies and others, some buildings were not included like banks because Nablus does not have main bank only branches. 2.7 Analysis background An analysis was carried out to suit the required data. Using Minitab analysis is done and created descriptive data and the analysis was 23 conducted. Tolerance intervals are very useful when predict has wanted a range of likely outcomes based on sampled data, on the other hand, the confidence interval is an interval estimate for a parameter value. constructed in a way so that, in the long run, a given proportion of these intervals will include the unknown true parameter value. The proportion is given by the "level of confidence". For instance, you can expect that at least 90% of (a large series of) 90% confidence intervals will include the unknown true values of the parameters. The differences between CI &TI The width of a confidence interval depends entirely on sampling error. The closer the sample comes to including the entire population, the smaller the width of the confidence interval, until it approaches zero, but a tolerance interval's width is based not only on sampling error but also variance in the population. As the sample size approaches the entire population, the sampling error diminishes and the estimated percentiles approach the true population percentiles. According to (Gelo,2014) confidence interval is an Interval that we are (1- α)% confident covers μ, gets smaller as n increases, Provides a range for the practical interpretation of the mean and Tells us nothing about individuals in the population According to Olsson, (2013) tolerance interval like a confidence interval for individuals can cover a certain proportion of the population with a 24 certain degree of confidence, for example, a 99%/95% tolerance interval will include 99% of the population with 95% confidence. The prediction interval will always be longer than the confidence interval for because there is more variability associated with the prediction error than with the error of estimation. This is easy to see because the prediction error is the difference between two random variables, and the estimation error in the CI is the difference between one random variable and a constant. As n gets larger, the length of the CI decreases to zero So as n increases, the uncertainty in estimating goes to zero, although there will always be uncertainty about the future value even when there is no need to estimate any of the distribution parameters. Practical Interpretation: Notice that the prediction interval is considerably longer than the CI. This is because of the CI an estimate of a parameter, while the PI is an interval estimate of a single future observation 25 Chapter Three Research Methodology 3.1 Introduction In this chapter will describe the research type and the sector that want to study by defining population of sample size and data analysis approach 3.2 Research type Depending on the research goals, a researcher can find the type of the research (Bhattacherjee:2012) and this research is calculating the indicators of energy in order to explain the relationship between variables which is consumption in energy number of worker so, in this study quantitative method approach was used to collect quantitative data. The main point from quantitative data to find the average of EUI and ECI and after that to investigate the coloration between variables which is represented by the figures and charts (Creswell,2012) and to explore and understand the circumstances caused the calculated EUI & ECI, although the data must be understandable and give a solution to the research problem (Creswell,2014) 3.3 Research methodology steps First, have been developed a strategy for the study methodology. have enumerated the number of non-industrial commercial buildings located in the city of Nablus according to the 2015 statistics of the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics. 26 Second, chose a suitable classification of buildings according to the Palestinian needs, the availability of information and the nature of the Palestinian environment itself. The classification includes schools, hospitals, restaurants, hotels, and companies. The sample was chosen based on a planned strategy. From the non-industrial buildings, we chose our sample based on size and occupancy rate, also, first began to do a pre studying in hospitals in order to find the variables that could affect this study, based on these criteria collected our sample from hospitals, restaurants, hotels, universities, schools, supermarkets, and shopping malls. For example, schools were chosen based on size, number of laboratories and the existent of energy saving programs. Hotels were chosen based on the number of rooms and occupancy rate. Nablus is a small city but it has a great economic status and lots of landmarks which makes small hotels compete with big hotels that why included hotels with more than 15 rooms in this study. Restaurants were also chosen based on size, occupancy rate and available equipment’s Third, the sample size was calculated based on a specific mechanism. The number of total operating establishments and the area of the same establishment were taken into account. Based on those criteria the establishments with small areas have been cancelled and the large ones with high occupancy rate were included 27 Fourth, by designed a questionnaire and distributed it, the quantitative questionnaire was designed based on a previous study with the same scientific purpose, the questionnaire was presented and checked by a panel of experts, and then the questionnaire was distributed to the targeted sample. Data were collected through a questionnaire (shown in appendix 1) distributed and collected by the researcher. An also quantitative interview was also conducted to collect more data Fifth: Purification and filtering the data; after data collection, the data was purified for information, knowing what will be the benefits from this study, and pointing to some important things for this study and other studies that might build on our results Sixth: Statistical analysis: a Minitab analysis program was used, based on descriptive analysis of data 3.4 Sample size Nablus is the economic capital of Palestine. In 2009, the number of economic facilities in the city of Nablus was 13742(Nablus Chamber of Commerce, 2009) as shown in Table 2. facilities belong to social services with 980, facility 235 were educational facilities, 490 health, and social work, 484 were real state and commercial, 103 Transport, storage, and communications, 681 restaurants and hotels and 125Financial intermediations(Nablus Chamber of Commerce, 2011). According to the Industrial Analysis Report from the Chamber of Commerce and Industry, 28 Nablus has a 56.3% share in the economic facilities which makes the number of facilities in Nablus 1748, by using the following equation: N=1748 P=.5 D=.05 Z=1.96 Based on the previous equation the desired sample would be 315, however, in this study only want to include large facilities, given that 25%of them are considered large facilities (Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Nablus). the sample size would be 78. Table (3) shows the distribution of the sample among different categories Table 3: Distribution of the sample among different categories Category Number of establishments Percentage Desired sample Collected sample Restaurants and hotels 681 22% 16 6 restaurants and 6 hotels Transport, storage and communications 103 3.3% 3 3 Financial intermediation 125 4.1% No main banks in Nablus -------- Not applicable social services 987 31% 24 ------not applicable health and social work 490 16% 12 4 Education 235 7.5% 6 22 schools and 2 universities real state, renting, and business activities 484 15.5% 12 30 companies        ppzdN ppN n    11 1 22 29 Based on the Central Statistical Book of Palestinian Cities, relied on the number of establishments located in Palestine as in the table (2) to determine the classification of establishments and their number 3.5 Research sample size The purpose of a survey is to capture the main characteristics of the population at any instant or monitor changes over time (Tan. 2004). Hence, proper design of the sampling process is very important to make the resulting sample representative of the population. According to Tan (2004), the trade-off between cost and precision in determining sample size may be derived using the Central Limit Theorem (The central limit theorem (CLT) The central limit theorem states that if you have a population with mean μ and standard deviation σ and take sufficiently large random samples from the population with replacement, then the distribution of the sample means will be approximately normally distributed, this theory could be applied in this study, were the sample taken from the population would represent the same data, with the same mean and standard deviation as the entire population of commercial facilities in Nablus (Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Nablus), but later noticed that data come from nonparametric and that because the sample was small and a Small sample simply don't contain enough information to let you make reliable inferences about the shape of the distribution in the entire population (Motulsky,2013) about:blank 30 3.6 Questionnaire The distributed questionnaire designed to get all the data needed for this research, it is designed by reviewing past studies with similar objectives based on ‘ENERGY PERFORMANCE OF HOTEL BUILDINGS questioner. It was acknowledged that a very long questionnaire with many details is likely to deter some building from being included in the survey. a very short one will inevitably fail to collect the necessary data. Therefore, the principle is to keep it succinct but still able to grasp the essentials. Ultimately, the questionnaire was finalized as a result of careful evaluation of these factors. The questionnaire was distributed manually by the researcher; extra questions were added based on the type of the facility (Appendix I) The questionnaire was divided to many sections which were: general information section which was designed in order to collect information about the establishment including its type, if there were any factors which increase energy use and bills for calculating energy use which will be used to calculate energy indicators ECI and EUI. The second section is the physical characteristics of the establishments which include information about the establishment itself in terms of size, number of workers, year of the establishment, number and type of equipment’s and period of use, taking into consideration the establishment type which has a great impact on those answers, this section also asks if an energy audit had been performed previously or not. 31 The last section was designed to collect information about the Operational characteristics of the facility including operating period, nature of work and occupancy rate 3.7 Preliminary study A Preliminary testing is very important because by conducting a Preliminary study a lot of problem could be detected and what might face the respondent (bhattacherjee,2012) and then obtain validity and sustainability of the question (bhattacherjee,2012). A sample of hospitals were chosen; only private hospitals were included because governmental hospitals declined giving the data. then examined the questions in the questionnaire and a group of experts and arbitrator saw the questionnaire to be easy to answer. (Table 4) Table 4: Expert and arbitrator who reviewed the questionnaire Number Position 4 Teaching staff at Al- Najah university 2 Auditing of energy ISO 32 3.8 Data analysis approach By using Conducting Quantitative Interviews for data collection. An average for ECI and EUI for non-industrial building will be calculated. An important step in conducting a survey is to check for data integrity. In the current study, this step was taken through site visit and conducting interview with the establishment engineers and accountants. Through site visits and questionnaire filling, the researcher focused on specific questions in order to collect correct information and clarify the differences between the chosen categories. For example, when collecting data from hotels, number of rooms was taken into consideration. However, when data were collected from schools, numbers of teachers, students and labs were taken into consideration because these factors affect energy use. In restaurants, asked about refrigeration rooms, fridges and stores. As for companies, asked about number of branches, stores, and warehouses, these questions were asked to explain expected results variability during data analysis. Conducting Quantitative Interviews Quantitative interviews are sometimes referred to as survey interviews because they resemble survey-style question-and-answer formats. They might also be called standardized interviews. The difference between surveys and standardized interviews is that questions and answer options are read to respondents rather than having respondents complete a questionnaire on their own. As with questionnaires, the questions posed in 33 a standardized interview tend to be closed ended. There are instances in which a quantitative interviewer might pose a few open-ended questions as well. This approach was adopted in order to be more clear and to find any other indicators (Rubin & Rubin. 1995). In quantitative interviews, an interview schedule is used to guide the researcher as he or she poses questions and answer options to respondents. An interview schedule is usually more rigid than an interview guide. It contains the list of questions and answer options that the researcher will read to respondents(Creswell, 1998) Table 5: Questions for each category Chapter four will present data analysis and results and discussion, which includes the effect of variables on energy indicators and we will talk CI &TI and t test and ANOVA test Name of the establishment Specific questions Schools Number of teachers Number of students Is there summer school Number of floors Number of scientific labs Companies Number of stores Number of branches Numbers of reserved staff Hotels Number of single bed rooms and suites Number of floors Accessories from a wedding hall or conference room 34 3.9 T test & ANOVA test Some conditions before performing the two tests are needed to be accomplished. For the T-test, population data should be normally distributed, and are comparing equal variances of the population. While for ANOVA tests, samples that are to be used are selected independently and randomly. should also assume that the population are taking the samples from is normal and have equal standard deviations. http://www.differencebetween.net/language/difference-between-data-and-information/ 35 Chapter four Results and discussion 4.1 Introduction The questionnaire had been explained, data were analysed using SPSS programme. In order to spot the difference, the questionnaire part and the interview part were presented as followed 4.2 Questionnaire analysis First section: general information In the first section we were only interested in the general information regarding the establishment including its type, nature of work, type of fuel used, electric and fuel bills. As seem in table 6 this information was used to calculate energy indicators (EUI, ECI). 36 Table 6: ECU and EUI for all categories No Name No Employee Size (m 2 ) EUI Kj/ m 2 ECI Nis/ m 2 Occupancy rate % energy kj 19795.9732 %40.00 6.129542 31.27326 633 7 عانم انحُشُرت 1 2 awad center 3 500 48.70872 10.08 50.00% 24354.3624 44311.4094 %50.00 10.78824 52.13107 850 3 مذرضة االمهات 3 34753.2886 %65.00 10.6875 54.30201 640 8 انبُث انطعُذ 4 9852.88591 %20.00 13.59333 65.68591 150 4 انمركس انظُىٍ 5 37671.9463 %55.00 13.85455 68.49445 550 5 طُذنُة طبرٌ 6 19315.9732 %25.00 14.37037 71.54064 270 4 انحطاب نهمىبُهُا 7 713923.862 %60.00 16.00441 98.47226 7250 33 شركة هضبة اندىُذٌ 8 31853.9597 %40.00 21 106.1799 300 2 شركة انبُث انعظرٌ 9 2درَم مىل 10 5 120 110.9799 21.5 35.00% 13317.5839 35888.8591 %35.00 19.70313 112.1527 320 3 شركة طىقان 11 وىار طُذنُة اال 12 120 114.2013 22.16667 60.00% 13704.1611 121733.154 %55.00 24.84 121.7332 1000 9 اضىاق انظىانحٍ 13 1275704.7 %70.00 26.4 127.5705 10000 خامعة انقذش 14 116318.4 %50.00 27.26706 136.8452 850 10 درَم ضىبر ضحىر 15 21535.5705 %40.00 28.73333 143.5705 150 7 اركاد نهعقار 16 46357.878 %20.00 47.015 231.7894 200 15 وضانكى نهطباعه 17 37061.8792 %30.00 37.52 247.0792 150 3 شركة انطهطان 18 19 Dand 4 100 296.3114 61.32 20.00% 29631.1409 مدمىعة شركات ضامر 20 شبُطه 6 250 729.1889 150.62 40.00% 182297.235 79440 %25.00 161.9 794.4 100 5 شركة فُروزٌ 21 bci 5 220 824.1123 170.5455 40.00% 181304.698شركة 22 37 6389961.34 %75.00 202.7754 983.071 6500 44 بال عقار 23 101496.483 %25.00 150.9 1014.965 100 4 شركة وقهُات انقىاضمٍ 24 619242.462 %30.00 168.0083 1032.071 600 10 اضىاق ابى بكر انحدارَه 25 1608270.46 %40.00 181.525 2010.338 800 16 ضىب ضحىر 26 20295974.6 %50.00 25.62791 48323.75 420 15 شركة بططامٍ نالدوَه 27 55048.5906 %60.00 27.6 137.6215 400 4 شركة انحح عهٍ 28 4497784 %89 219.7119 1285.081 3500 153 مطحشفً االودُهٍ 36 9658590.32 %90 190.9574 965.859 10000 450 مطحشفً انىداذ 37 3751246 %75 173.5757 937.8115 4000 207 مطحشفً وابهص 38 6716975.6 %80 303.1691 1865.827 3600 230 مطحشفً انعربٍ 39 402927.709 %30 59.77673 335.7731 1200 22 االماكه 41 1835809.92 %60 684.6069 5245.171 350 30 ورد 42 202777.6 %20 98.84533 506.944 400 10 زادووا 43 1725153.54 %70 934.1 6461.249 267 9 دومُىىز بُحسا 44 2286177.73 %80 337.2421 2286.178 1000 70 انف نُهه ونُهه 45 363408.738 %60 103.4057 519.1553 700 26 جشهُى 46 1403221.39 %35.00 271.0555 467.7405 3000 32 انقظر 47 443928 %70.00 35.866 177.5712 2500 12 ضهُم افىذٌ 48 78912 %85.00 34.25 164.4 480 2 عطاف 49 1200000 %70.00 82.5 480 2500 15 انقهعه 50 73015 %50.00 17.14 85.9 850 6 االضراء 51 459763.2 %75.00 88.3392 459.7632 1000 16 فىذق انُاضمُىه 52 34522.8 %75 2.79686 16.67768 .2070 23.50 عراق انحاَه انثاوىَة 53 52694.4 %70 2.130242 12.61537 4177 26.00 انُرمىك انثاوىبة 54 35242.8 %75 1.443647 8.701926 4050 25.50 مذرضة انعائشُة انثاوىَة 55 نثاوىَةضمُر ضعذ انذَه ا 56 35.50 4091 12.68404 2.14747 70% 51890.4 42061.2 %80 1.656419 9.850398 4270 30.00 كمال خىبالط انثاوىَة 57 38 39040.8 %80 2.162663 12.75843 3060 23.50 انفاطمُة انثاوىَة 58 خمال عبذ انىاطر 59 انثاوىَة 27.50 6445 10.00068 1.676631 85% 64454.4 حُة انثاوىَة نهبىُهانظال 60 28.00 7430 18.2463 3.09776 75% 135570 32590.8 %70 1.469959 8.808324 3700 26.00 انظالحُة انثاوىَة نهبىات 61 عمرو به انعاص 62 انثاوىَة 18.00 3900 10.24892 1.730638 70% 39970.8 53829.6 %60 2.651459 15.83224 3400 24.50 ضعذ طاَم االضاضُة 63 17287.2 %65 2.88761 17.2872 1000 10.50 خمُهة بى حُرد االضاضُة 64 33867.6 %70 5.029491 29.70842 1140 26.50 فهمٍ انظُفٍ 65 17030.4 %70 3.510245 15.48218 1100 10.50 انىظامُة االضاضُة نهبىات 66 24519.6 %70 2.731206 16.24891 1509 19.00 بالل به رباذ 67 17088 %75 1.879568 11.18325 1528 13.00 انخىطاء االضاضُة 68 18118.8 %75 0.60598 3.62376 5000 16.00 ابه ضُىا 69 23810.4 %70 1.99854 11.9052 2000 21.50 فذوي طىقان 70 8736 %75 2.086897 13.09745 667.00 12.00 طارق به زَاد 71 2200.0 16.50 عادل زعُحر االضاضُة 72 0 17.17364 2.900482 70% 37782 1577.0 18.50 عمر انمخحار االضاضُة 73 0 13.86278 2.337514 75% 21861.6 39 After data collection, out of 78 questionnaires, 73 were collected and completed, 5 were not completed. Here, was noticeable the big variability in the data. So, after several trials including classifying by size, the results were not understandable yet, when was classified by category there was a big variability, this could be related to the wide differences even in the same category. For example, companies had big differences in a number of employee, branches, age equipment, and heating and conditioning system which gave the great variability. In the second section, the energy performance indicators were calculated. In the case of hospitals, the sample was small, but was noticeable that the nature of hospitals was the same, same equipment; same heating and conditioning system, all used the same energy sources (Gas, diesel, electricity). That’s why other factors like size and occupancy rate were obvious, and their effects on the energy indicators were clear which was seen in the statistical analysis. In cases of restaurant and hotels, clear differences were spotted, which is related to the differences in the same category, for example, some hotels target college students only for sleeping, like in Israa and Assaf hotels. However, AlQasr hotel despite its big size, other factors affected the hotel, like its old establishment, and the shortage of its visitors. As for restaurants, the nature of the work used equipment and the age of the building had an effect on the results. In cases of schools, only 40 governmental schools were selected, which makes it easier to compare and it would be difficult to get data from private schools. After data analysis noticed that the analysis should be based on the Conditioned Area (size*Occupancy rate). New EUI and New ECI were calculated based on the conditioned Area. We also took into consideration the effect of other factors on New EUI and New ECI. Second section: Physical characteristics of the establishment In the second section, we were focusing on questions like the age of the facility, size, number of employees, type of glass, number of equipment, number of work hours, and questions regarding energy conservation. Through these questions, it was expected what the factors and how they affected the energy performance indicators. But, the differences were clear, for example, hotels had big halls and equipment, restaurants had different working hours, type of glass, energy saving strategies, which gave very important results. Schools had a big size, applied many strategies to decrease its energy consumption according to the ministry of education plans, which also included changing the lighting to LED, and future plans for applying sun cells on the school’s roof. As for companies, it was noticed that some companies had the greatest number of employee, greatest size, but, their consumption was less which is related to their nature of work and applying strategies for reducing energy consumption. 41 Third section: Operational characteristics of the facility In the third section asked regarding the occupancy rate and number of workers in the first shift which is a very important for this study. 4.3 Interview analysis Upon finishing the data collection and interview process, data analysis was performed in order to answer the research questions. To collect more data and to obtain more information about the research problem, by using a semi-structured interview analysis. In the first step, data were taken from people in charge; the questionnaire was analysed using a strategic process in which every category was analysed separately including related questions and output (Table 7) in order to reach our objectives. (See Appendix III) By correlating the interview questions with the overall energy consumption, data were analysed using SPSS. The analysis was separate for each category, with regards to the factors affecting their energy consumption. As seen in table (7). For example, a number of students, size and number of laboratory had a role in increasing energy consumption in schools. But, in companies, a number of branches and number of stores questions indicated high energy consumption. As for hotels, a number of rooms, accessory conference rooms, and halls had a roll in increasing energy consumption. 42 Table 7: Questions related to each category Name establishmen t Specific questions Affect Significance α Schools Number of teachers Number of students Is there summer school Number of floors Number of scientific labs No Effect.767 No Effect.644 No Effect.9 Effect.022 Effect .032 Companies Number of stores Number of branches Numbers of reserved staff Effect .014 Effect .031 No Effect.184 Hotels Number of single bed rooms and suites Number of floors Accessories from a wedding hall or conference room Effect.042 Effect .030 Effect.019 4.4 Quantitative analysis and discussion Introduction By calculating the energy indicators (EUI) which is energy consumption divided by the area of the establishment (condition area = actual area*average occupancy rate). Using Mini tab programme, T-test analysis was performed; confidence interval and descriptive statistics were found. Regression analysis was also used but did not give satisfactory for some of the equations, this might have related to the high variability between variables. ANOVA test was performed to identify significance relationship. Finally, by calculated Tolerance Interval (TI) in order to identify the highest and the lowest values. Data were found to be not normally distributed 43 As shown below in the flow chart, the analysis process was as follows: using Minitab to analyzes and find the prediction equation for indicators, in case the equation failed we went to energy as a primary variable for the indicators, which can use to find the correlation between actual area and energy (actual area is the of area multiplied by occupancy rate), can also prove that actual area has an impact on energy indicators. EUI for companies Normal probability plot shows high variability which indicates that other immeasurable variables like nature of work and type of equipment could have an effect on EUI One-Sample T test: new EUI A confidence interval for companies EUI mean value was calculated using a t-test, the test assumes unknown variance and data not in normal distribution. Results are presented in table 8. It is shown that the average 44 EUI value equals to 1086 kJ/m 2 , with a 95% confidence interval varies between 506 to1630 kJ/m 2 . This value is equivalent to 30.2 litres of diesel per m2. But it should be kept on mind that the original consumption will exceed 90 Litre of diesel per m 2 since the efficiency of electricity generation is about 35%. Table 8: descriptive statistics for Companies EUI Variable N Mean SD SE Mean 95% CI EUI new 26 1068 1391 273 (506, 1630) Tolerance interval As shown in the normal probability plot figure (4), all values are confined between the highest and lowest value by a 95% ratio so the tolerance interval between (78.18, 5025.84) (Table 9) Upper tolerance interval and lower tolerance interval so far between each other Upper tolerance interval and lower tolerance interval so far between each other, which is related to the differences in the nature of work for each establishment, more specific, detailed and precise classification are needed for future study. That’s why the data shown in the graph was nonparametric Normality Probability Plot with Nonparametric data: Nonparametric tests have less power than parametric tests, and the difference is noticeable with tiny samples. Unfortunately, normality tests have little power to detect whether or not a sample comes from a Gaussian population when the sample is tiny. Small samples simply don't contain enough information to let you make reliable inferences about the shape of 45 the distribution in the entire population (Motulsky,2013). Normality tests work well with large samples, but here we have a small sample which didn’t contain enough data to let us make reliable inferences about the shape of the distribution of the population from which the data were drawn. So normality tests don't answer the question. Normality tests ask the question of whether there is evidence that the distribution differs from Gaussian. But with huge samples, normality testing will detect tiny deviations from Gaussian, differences small enough so they shouldn't sway the decision about parametric vs. nonparametric testing(Motulsky,2013). That’s why the sample was distributed as shown in (Figure 4) Figure 4: Normal probability plot for Companies EUI Table 9: Tolerance interval for Companies EUI N Mean SD Lower Upper 26 1067.61 1391.45 78.18 5025.84 Regression for EUI V.S Conditioned Area for company Assumed the relationship to be linear and calculated the regression equation, the values were R square =.022 and P value =.4, the significance was higher than .05 which means that cannot consider conditioned area as a predictor for EUI, as shown in (Table 10) 46 Table 01: Regression for EUI vs. Conditioned area Multiple R 0.151649 R Square 0.022997 Adjusted R Square -0.01608 Standard Error 1381.444 Observations 27 One-way ANOVA: New EUI versus condition area After using ANOVA test to prove the effect of condition area which is all area multiplied by occupancy rate, p value was .4 which is more than p value in the regression and there is no significant relationship between conditioned area and EUI, as shown in (Tables11 and 12) Table 00: one way ANOVA EUI for Company ANOVA SS MS F Significan ce F Regression 1123030 112303 0.5884 0.450196 Residual 4770971 19083 Total 4883274 Table 02: Standard Error Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Intercept 1133.435 290.8873 3.896476 0.000646 534.3418 1732.529 conditione d area -0.12026 0.156766 -0.76712 0.450196 -0.44312 0.202608 After applying the regression equation, the percentage of error was very high which means that the linearity assumption is not valid. This indicates that the relationship was not linear and the equation is not useful. So, by drawing a graph (Figure 5) representing only the relationship between EUI 47 and conditioned area, the graph was binomial and we can use to predict future energy consumption. Variables other than conditioned area and occupancy rate which could have an impact, such as, number of employee load factor, working hours, building age, applying energy conservation measures caused variation and deviation from linearity assumption; table 13 shows the differences between the actual EUI and the predicted one. Figure 5: EUI kj/m 2 and conditioned area m 2 Table 03: Predicted EUI VS Real measures Observation Predicted new euikj/m 2 Residuals new eui (kj/m 2 1 1131.030164 350.5268833 1481.557047 2 1130.428873 2047.171127 3177.6 3 1130.428873 2929.430456 4059.859329 4 1129.827583 -801.3980526 328.4295302 5 1128.625002 30.32194765 1158.94695 6 1128.384486 -811.299155 317.0853308 7 1128.023712 -304.4263961 823.5973154 8 1126.21984 -767.2936657 358.9261745 9 1125.317905 -839.1553393 286.1625652 10 1124.776743 -934.4411727 190.3355705 11 1122.852614 937.4280452 2060.280659 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 2 0 2 5 4 0 4 5 6 7 .5 8 8 1 1 2 1 3 7 .6 2 1 4 7 6 5 2 5 0 3 0 2 .5 4 1 6 4 2 5 4 3 5 0 7 0 0 0 EU I conditioned area new eui Predicted new eui 48 12 1121.409517 701.5628323 1822.972349 13 1119.96642 -799.5301781 320.4362416 14 1119.004355 -853.5546906 265.4496644 15 1116.88523 -716.8852299 400 16 1111.78887 2328.447028 3440.235897 17 1103.370804 -1005.953354 97.41744966 18 1102.985978 -1024.80283 78.18314832 19 1097.057254 -972.5218944 124.5353597 20 1094.952738 3930.892455 5025.845192 21 1083.407961 -999.8664022 83.54155911 22 1082.325638 -978.0634987 104.2621398 23 1082.325638 -808.6352855 273.6903529 24 1067.293378 -845.9603697 221.3330079 25 610.3126474 -446.1922194 164.120428 26 547.1771518 763.5841492 1310.761301 27 291.6287171 -109.3851888 182.2435283 As mentioned in EUI for companies the t-test shows confidence interval between (78.18, 5025.84). In the regression model here noticed the weakness of the linear assumption between conditioned area and EUI. Also, performed one-way ANOVA to prove that there is a direct effect between Conditioned Area and EUI, we found no significant result (p=.4), so the size has no effect on EUI which should be taken in consideration as shown above After establishing the relationship between conditioned area and EUI, figure 6 present a graph that represents this relationship, the graph presents a polynomial shape, the equation is: Y = 2.8093x2 - 123.77x + 2054.7 The percentage of R² was 8%. Thus, we cannot predict the future EUI based on the conditioned area 49 Figure 6: New EUI and conditioned area in companies ECI (Energy Cost Index) The factor affecting this indicator were studies, which is related to the energy price for every square meter, big variability was found, which indicates that some factors had a main effect and some do not, which will be seen later in this chapter. One-Sample T: ECI new Confidence interval for companies ECI mean value was calculated using t-test, the test assumes unknown variance and data normal distribution. Results are presented in table (14). It is shown that the average ECI value equals to 179.7 Nis/m 2 .year, with a 95% confidence interval varies between 96.6 to 262.8 Nis/m 2 .year Table 04: Descriptive statistics for Companies ECI Variable N Mean SD SE Mean 95% CI ECI new 26 179.7 205.8 40.4 (96.6, 262.8) y = 2.8093x2 - 123.77x + 2054.7 R² = 0.0811 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 new eui 50 Tolerance Interval: NEW ECI Figure 7: Normal Probability plot for Companies ECI all values are confined between the highest and lowest value by a 95% ratio. (Table 15) Table 05: Tolerance probability for Companies ECI N Mean SD Lower Upper 26 179.70 205.772 15.324 647.6 ECI Regression Analysis (Conditioned Area V.S ECI) Assuming a linear relationship, the regression equation presented in results (Table 16, 17, and 18), r²= .02 it is shown that the values is low and the modelled equation does not explain the data variability. Table 06: Regression ECI and Conditioned area Multiple R 0.152321 R Square 0.023202 Adjusted R Square -0.01587 Standard Error 204.2845 Observations 27 51 Table 07: ANOVA for Companies ECI ANOVA SS MS F Significance F Regression 24781.28 24781.28 0.593817 0.448168 Residual 1043304 41732.17 Total 1068085 Table 08: Standard error Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Intercept 189.4704 43.01568 4.404684 0.000174 100.878 278.0629 conditioned area -0.01786 0.023182 -0.7706 0.448168 -0.06561 0.029881 Figure 8 represent the relationship between the predicted and actual ECI in order to show the difference and the percentage of error (Table 19). The assumption of a linear relationship between conditioned area and occupancy rate also failed. Table 09: Actual ECI VS predicted ECI Observation Predicted new eci nis/m 2 Residuals Standard Residuals new eci nis/m 2 1 184.9473 -169.623 -0.846 15.32 2 185.0044 -164.844 -0.822 20.16 3 181.8782 -160.302 -0.800 21.56 4 182.039 -165.597 -0.826 16.44 5 188.9345 -120.968 -0.603 67.966 6 184.0666 -158.876 -0.793 25.190 7 188.2646 -130.783 -0.652 57.481 8 111.7617 -85.0877 -0.424 26.674 9 187.3268 -134.827 -0.673 52.5 10 188.7202 -127.292 -0.635 61.42 11 187.4697 -131.175 -0.654 56.29 12 188.1842 -151.24 -0.755 36.944 13 179.6452 -134.482 -0.671 45.16 14 64.42191 -26.7076 -0.133 37.714 15 181.8782 -127.344 -0.635 54.534 16 188.3986 -116.565 -0.5819 71.83 52 17 188.7559 46.31912 0.2312 235.07 18 188.6666 -63.5999 -0.3175 125.06 19 189.1132 117.4868 0.5865 306.6 20 187.684 188.866 0.9428 376.55 21 189.0238 458.5762 2.2892 647.6 22 187.8984 238.4652 1.1904 426.36 23 102.3831 167.9841 0.8385 270.36 24 189.0238 414.5762 2.0695 603.6 25 186.2549 373.7729 1.8659 560.02 26 183.7539 270.0586 1.3481 453.81 27 187.012 -106.792 -0.533 80.220 Figure 8: Actual ECI VS predicted ECI After establishing the relationship between conditioned area and ECI, figure 9 shows a graph that represents this relationship, the graph presents a polynomial shape, and the equation is: Y = 0.6955X 2 - 29.295x + 407.62 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 2 0 2 5 4 0 4 5 6 7 .5 8 8 1 1 2 1 3 7 .6 2 1 4 7 6 5 2 5 0 3 0 2 .5 4 1 6 4 2 5 4 3 5 0 7 0 0 0 EC I N EW conditioned area new eci Predicted new eci 53 Figure 9: new ECI VS conditioned area The percentage of R² was 18.3%. Thus, cannot predict the future ECI based on the conditioned area. After failed to prove that conditioned area has a direct effect on both energy indicators, connected conditioned area with energy, where energy is the main factor in both indicators and any change to energy can affect energy indicators. So, study will define the relationship between energy and conditioned area and find the regression equation. Regression for Energy V.S Conditioned Area for company Regression analysis was done between energy level and conditioned area; after find that conditioned area affect energy using a regression equation and by calculating the standard error (Table 20-23). R² equals 0.38 and adjusted R square equals 0.36. a significant relationship was found (p=0.0005). the conditioned area lies between the values (218.5855 and 685.7852)m 2 . 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 2 0 2 5 4 0 4 5 6 7 .5 8 8 1 1 2 1 3 7 .6 2 1 4 7 6 5 2 5 0 3 0 2 .5 4 1 6 4 2 5 4 3 5 0 7 0 0 0 EC I conditioned area new eci 54 Table 21: Energy VS condition area Regression Statistics Multiple R 0.623426 R Square 0.38866 Adjusted R Square 0.364207 Standard Error 999502.5 Observations 27 Table 20: ANOVA Energy for company SS MS F Significance Regression 1.59E+13 1.59E+13 15.8938 0.000513 2.5E+13 9.99E+11 Total 4.09E+13 Table 22: Standard error Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Intercept 98920.32 210462.7 0.470013 0.64242 -334536 532376.4 conditioned area 452.1853 113.4234 3.986703 0.000513 218.5855 685.7852 Equation Y=98920+452x Table 23: Predicted and actual energy RESIDUAL OUTPUT Observation Predicted energy KJ Residuals Standard Residuals Calculated energy KJ 1 213413.7 -193618 -0.19755 19795.9732 2 211966.7 -187612 -0.19142 24354.3624 3 291099.1 -246788 -0.2518 44311.4094 4 287029.4 -252276 -0.2574 34753.2886 5 112485.9 -102633 -0.10472 9852.88591 6 235706.4 -198034 -0.20206 37671.9463 7 129442.8 -110127 -0.11236 19315.9732 8 2065927 -1352003 -1.37946 713923.862 9 153182.6 -121329 -0.12379 31853.9597 10 117912.1 -104595 -0.10672 13317.5839 11 149565.1 -113676 -0.11599 35888.8591 12 131477.7 -117774 -0.12017 13704.1611 13 347622.3 -225889 -0.23048 121733.154 14 3264218 -1988513 -2.0289 1275704.7 55 15 291099.1 -174781 -0.17833 116318.4 16 126051.4 -104516 -0.10664 21535.5705 17 117007.7 -70649.9 -0.07208 46357.878 18 119268.7 -82206.8 -0.08388 37061.8792 19 107964 -78332.9 -0.07992 29631.1409 20 144138.9 38158.38 0.038933 182297.235 21 110225 -30785 -0.03141 79440 22 138712.6 42592.06 0.043457 181304.698 23 2303324 4086637 4.169643 6389961.34 24 110225 -8728.47 -0.00891 101496.483 25 180313.7 438928.8 0.447844 619242.462 26 243619.6 1364651 1.392369 1608270.46 27 161150.7 -106102 -0.10826 55048.5906 Figure9 shows that the actual and predicted energy almost match. However, after studying the differences can see that the reason was related to the nature of the company, number of employee and the system that the company follows. Figure 9: The relationship between actual energy kj and the predicted energy kj. 0 1000000 2000000 3000000 4000000 5000000 6000000 7000000 2 0 2 5 4 0 4 5 6 7 .5 8 8 1 1 2 1 3 7 .6 2 1 4 7 6 5 2 5 0 3 0 2 .5 4 1 6 4 2 5 4 3 5 0 7 0 0 0 En er gy conditioned area energy Predicted energy 56 EUI for Hospitals One sample T test: Number of hospitals in this sample was 6, only 4 answered the questionnaire, as presented in table (24), it is shown that the average EUI value equals 559 kJ/m 2 , with a 95% confidence interval varies between 635 to 2415 kJ/m 2 average confidence interval. Table 24: Descriptive Statistics for Hospitals EUI Variable N Mean SD 95%CI New EUI 4 559 280 (635,2415) Tolerance Interval: new EUI As shown in Table 25, all values are confined between the highest and lowest value by a 95% ratio, also here we note due to lack of sample number of hospital there is no figure for tolerance interval Table 25: Probability for Hospital EUI N Mean SD Lower Upper 4 1524.94 559.11 1073.17 2332.28 The P value was much higher than .05, which indicates high variance, differences in conditioned area and differences in energy indicators. (Table 26-29) show an r²=.31 which is a very low value. 57 Regression for EUI V.S Conditioned Area for Hospital Table 26: Regression Statistics Regression Statistics Multiple R 0.559338 R Square 0.312859 Adjusted R Square -0.03071 Standard Error 567.6339 Observations 4 Table 27: ANOVA EUI for Hospital ANOVA SS MS F Significance F Regression 293406.1 293406.1 0.91061 0.44066208 Residual 644416.4 322208.2 Total 937822.5 Table 28: Standard errors Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Intercept 1993.546 567.1802 3.514838 0.072279 -446.83282 4433.926 condition ed area -0.10416 0.109155 -0.95426 0.440662 -0.5738186 0.365494 Table 29: Residual Output RESIDUAL OUTPUT Observation Predicted new eui Residuals Standard Residuals new eui 1 1669.081 -225.17 -0.48583 2332.283 2 1056.086 17.09023 0.036874 1250.415 3 1681.06 -430.644 -0.92917 1443.911 4 1693.559 638.7239 1.378131 1073.177 Figure 10 shows a high variance and high percentage of error between calculated and actual EUI . 58 Figure 10: Predicted EUI kj/ m 2 VS Real measures. After establishing the relationship between conditioned area and hospital EUI, figure 11 present a graph that represent this relationship, the graph presents a polynomial shape, the equation is: y = 177.78X 2 - 1247.3x + 3309.8 The percentage of R² was 81.9%. Thus, we can predict the future EUI based on the conditioned area. Figure 11: new EUI VS conditioned area in Hospitals. 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 2880 3000 3115 9000 n e w E U I conditioned area new eui Predicted new eui y = 177.78x2 - 1247.3x + 3309.8 R² = 0.8196 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 2880 3000 3115 9000 new eui 59 ECI FOR HOSPITAL One-Sample T Test Confidence interval for hospitals ECI mean value was calculated using t- test; the test assumes unknown variance and data normal distribution. Results are presented in table (30). It is shown that the average ECI value equals to 267.4 kJ/m 2 , with a 95% confidence interval varies between 146.8 to 387.9kJ/m 2 . Table 31: Descriptive Statistics for Hospitals ECI Variable N Mean SD SE Mean 95% CI ECI new 4 267.4 75.7 37.9 (146.8, 387.9) Tolerance Interval: ECI NEW As shown in the normal probability plot (Figure 12), all values are confined between the highest and lowest value by a 95% ratio. Figure 12: Normal Probability plot for Hospitals. After assumed a linear relationship and applied the regression equation the result shown in Table (31-34) r²=.83 (p=.08) which is slightly higher than .05. The equation was: 60 Table 30: Regression for ECI V.S Conditioned Area for hospitals Multiple R 0.913229 R Square 0.833988 Adjusted R Square 0.750981 Standard Error 76.66505 Observations 4 Table 32: ANOVA ECI for hospital ANOVA SS MS F Significan ce F Regressio n 59053.23 59053.23 10.04729 0.086771 Residual 11755.06 5877.53 Total 70808.29 Table 33: Standard Error Coefficien ts Standar d Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Intercept 426.6649 76.6037 8 5.56976 3 0.03075 6 97.0654 5 756.264 3 conditioned area -0.04673 0.01474 3 - 3.16975 0.08677 1 - 0.11016 0.01670 2 Table 34: RESIDUAL OUTPUT Observation Predicted new eci Residuals Standard Residuals new eci 1 292.082 86.87936 1.387921 378.9613 2 286.4744 -55.04 -0.87928 231.4343 3 281.1004 -34.233 -0.54688 246.8673 4 6.093276 2.393721 0.03824 8.486997 Figure 13 represent the relationship between the actual and the predicted ECI 61 Figure 13: The relationship Predicted ECI VS Real measures. After establishing the relationship between conditioned area and hospitals ECI, figure 14 present a graph that represent this relationship, the graph presents a linear shape, the equation is: y = -0.0467x + 426.66 The percentage of R² was 83.3%. Thus, can predict the future ECI based on the conditioned area or based regression equation because R² Values are close together. Figure 14: New ECI and energy in Hospitals 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 2880 3000 3115 9000 EC I Conditioned area new eci Predicted new eci y = -0.0467x + 426.66 R² = 0.834 0 100 200 300 400 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 new eci 62 Regression for Energy vs. conditioned area Regression analysis was done between energy level and conditioned area; did find that conditioned area affects energy using a regression equation and find the regression equation. R² equals 0.75 and adjusted R square equals 0.36. (Table 35) Table 35: Regression Statistics Regression Statistics Multiple R 0.868627 R Square 0.754513 Adjusted R Square 0.63177 Standard Error 1609898 Observations 4 ANOVA MS F Significance F Regression 1.59318E+1 3 6.14707808 0.131372798 Residual 2.59177E+1 2 Total The sample size here is 4, a small sample size will give us huge variability in data and large margin of error because of that regression equation is week but R 2 is high= 63%so the model fits the data. The higher the R 2 value, the better the model fits the data. The p value (.13) was higher than .05 which indicates that conditioned area does not affect energy (Tables 35 and 37). Table 37 shows the residual error. Energy = 2703121+767.55*conditioned area 63 Table 36: Standard error Coefficients Standard Error P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Intercept 2703121 1608610.816 0.23489455 -4218172.75 9624415 condition ed area 767.5528 309.5806998 0.1313728 -564.465474 2099.571 Table 37: RESIDUAL OUTPUT Observation Predicted energy Residuals Standard Residuals 1 5094047.837 - 596263.8375 -0.453613373 2 9611095.88 47494.44348 0.036131849 3 5005779.269 - 1254533.269 -0.954398091 4 4913672.937 1803302.663 1.371879616 Figure 15 represents the relationship between predicted energy and actual energy; it is noticeable that the two lines almost match with slight differences, which indicates that the nature of hospitals in the city is the same in terms of consumptions. The high error indicates that the sample does not take energy indicators in consideration. Figure 15: Predicted Energy kj VS Real measures kj. 0 2000000 4000000 6000000 8000000 10000000 12000000 2880 3000 3115 9000 en er gy conditioned area Predicted energy energy 64 EUI for restaurants &hotels One-Sample T test: new EUI Confidence interval for restaurants and hotels EUI mean value was calculated using t-test; the test assumes unknown variance and data normal distribution. As presented in table (38), the average EUI value equals to 1053kJ/m 2 , with a 95% confidence interval varies between 366 to 1740 kJ/m 2 . Table 38: Descriptive statistics for Restaurants and Hotels EUI Variable N Mean SD 95%CI condition EUI 12 1053 1082 (366,1740) Tolerance Interval: new EUI As shown in the normal probability plot (Figure 16), all values are confined between the highest and lowest value by a 95% ratio. (Table 39) Figure 16: Normal Probability plot for Restaurants and Hotels EUI. Here as shown in (figure 16) Upper tolerance interval and lower tolerance interval so far between each other, which is related to the differences in the nature of work for each establishment, more specific, detailed and precise 65 classification are needed for future study. That’s why the data shown in the graph was nonparametric Table 39: Probability Restaurants and Hotels EUI N Mean SD Lower Upper 12 1052.95 1081.58 171.8 4000 Regression Restaurants and Hotels EUI VS conditioned area Assuming a linear relationship, the results were (r²=.079, p=.19) which is higher than .05 (Table 40). The regression equation was Y= 1486.7-.322X Table 40: Regression Regression Statistics Multiple R 0.404369 R Square 0.163514 Adjusted R Square 0.079865 Standard Error 1037.495 Observations 12 Table 41: ANOVA EUI for Restaurants and Hotels Table 42: Standard error ANOVA SS MS F Significan ce F Regression 2104110 2104110 1.954773 0.192309 Residual 10763961 1076396 Total 12868070 Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Intercept 1486.796 431.2617 3.44755 0.006252 525.8853 2447.707 conditioned area -0.32245 0.230628 -1.39813 0.192309 -0.83632 0.191423 66 We drew a graph (Figure 17) representing the relationship between the actual and the predicted EUI. The results were shown in table (43), noticed that high percentage of error, the results were much different than the actual values. Table 43: Predicted EUI VS Real measures Observation Predicted new eui kj/m 2 Residuals Standard Residuals new eui kj/m 2 1 1454.315 2545.685 2.573445 4000 2 472.0167 111.3166 0.11253 583.3333 3 1454.103 545.8965 0.551849 2000 4 28.40082 353.0277 0.356877 381.4286 5 897.056 352.944 0.356793 1250 6 1386.356 -219.689 -0.22208 1166.667 7 1148.225 188.1764 0.190228 1336.401 8 922.5108 -668.838 -0.67613 253.6731 9 1355.237 -1161.83 -1.17449 193.4118 10 922.5108 -236.797 -0.23938 685.7143 11 1349.755 -1177.96 -1.1908 171.8 12 1244.96 -631.942 -0.63883 613.0176 Figure 17: Predicted EUI kj/m 2 VS Real measures kj/m 2 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 n ew e u i conditioned area new eui Predicted new eui 67 After establishing the relationship between conditioned area and EUI, figure 18 present a graph that represent this relationship, the graph presents a linear shape, the equation is: Y=-0.3224x + 1486.8 The percentage of R² was 16.35%. Thus, we cannot predict the future EUI based on the conditioned area. Figure 18: New EUI and Energy Sample size here was 14, 12 answered the questioner. After analysing the data, noticed that confidence interval is good and regression equation is not good for to predict in the future trend of EUI and energy consuming in hotel and restaurants. Also, R 2 here 16.35%. Also, type of the hotel and restaurant play a role in energy consuming and other building follow the main play a role. 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 new EUI 68 ECI for RESTURANTCE &HOTEL One-Sample T: new ECI Confidence interval for restaurants and hotels ECI mean value was calculated using t-test; the test assumes unknown variance and data normal distribution. Results are presented in table (44). It is shown that the average ECI value equals to 232 kJ/m 2 , with a 95% confidence interval varies between 67.1 to 397.2 kJ/m 2 . Table 44: Descriptive Statistics for Restaurants and Hotels ECI Variable N Mean SD SE Mean 95% CI ECI new 12 232.2 259.7 75.0 (67.1,397.2) Tolerance Interval: New ECI As shown in the normal probability plot (Figure 19), all values are confined between the highest and lowest value by a 95% ratio. (Table 45) Figure 19: Normal probability plot for Restaurants and Hotels Also here the data shown in the graph was nonparametric in (Figure 19) Upper tolerance interval and lower tolerance interval so far between each other, which is related to the differences in the nature of work for each 69 establishment, more specific, detailed and precise classification are needed for future study. Table 45: Probability for Restaurants and Hotels N Mean SD Lower Upper 12 232.169 295.744 34.28 774.44 Regression ECI for RESTURANTCE &HOTEL vs conditioned Area Table 46 shows the regression statistics (r²=.09) Table 46: Regression Statistics Multiple R 0.301399 R Square 0.090841 Adjusted R Square -7.5E-05 Standard Error 214.9157 Observations 12 One-way ANOVA: new ECI versus condition area By used ANOVA test to prove the effect of condition area which is the size multiplied by occupancy rate, p value was more than .05, which indicate no significant effect on energy consumption as shown in table (47-48) Table 47: ANOVAECI for Restaurants and Hotels SS MS F Significance F Regression 46150.84 46150.84 0.999179 0.341082 Residual 461887.6 46188.76 Total 508038.4 70 Table 48: Standard error Table 49: RESIDUAL OUTPUT Observation Predicted new eci Residuals Standard Residuals new eci 1 242.2694 -4.89986 -0.02391 237.3695 2 96.79079 -20.6533 -0.10079 76.13746 3 242.238 147.7275 0.720924 389.9655 4 31.09118 24.05178 0.117375 55.14296 5 159.7392 -85.9824 -0.4196 73.75675 6 232.2045 0.172913 0.000844 232.3775 7 196.9374 577.507 2.818288 774.4443 8 163.509 -112.272 -0.5479 51.23714 9 227.5959 -194.017 -0.94682 33.57843 10 163.509 -45.6519 -0.22279 117.8571 11 226.7841 -192.504 -0.93944 34.28 12 211.2638 -93.4782 -0.45618 117.7856 Figure 20 represent the relationship between actual and predicted ECI Figure 20: Predicted ECI nis/ m 2 VS Real measures nis/ m 2 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 new eci Predicted new eci Coefficien ts Standar d Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Intercept 247.0798 89.3352 8 2.76575 9 0.01993 2 48.0284 2 446.131 2 conditioned area -0.04775 0.04777 4 - 0.99959 0.34108 2 -0.1542 0.05869 3 71 After establishing the relationship between conditioned area and EUI, figure 21 present a graph that represent this relationship, the graph presents a polynomial shape The percentage of R² was 9%. Which indicate that the equation could not be used, and the results can’t be adopted. This might be related to the other underestimated factors, like wedding halls in Hotels, meeting rooms, swimming pools and number of rooms. Thus, can predict the future ECI based on the conditioned area. Figure 21: New ECI nis/ m 2 and conditioned area m 2 We considered energy a main factor affecting both energy indicators, that’s why considered a linear relationship and can apply regression statistics in order to get a relationship between energy and conditioned area. y = 9E-07x2 - 0.0517x + 249.13 R² = 0.0909 0 200 400 600 800 1000 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 ECI NEW 72 Regression for Energy V.S Conditioned Area Regression analysis was done between energy level and conditioned area; find that conditioned area affect energy using a regression equation and by calculating the standard error. R² equals 0.55 and adjusted R 2 equals 0.50 (Table 50-52) P value .005 is smaller than .05 and equation for regression is Y=301136.6825+424.9754109X Table 51: Regression statistics Regression Statistics Multiple R 0.744520852 R Square 0.554311299 Adjusted R Square 0.509742429 Standard Error 542095.9833 Observations 12 Table 50: ANOVA Energy for Restaurants and Hotels SS MS F Significance F Regression 3.65E+12 3.65489E+12 12.43719 0.005477 Residual 2.94E+12 2.93868E+11 Total 6.59E+12 Table 52: Standard error Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Intercept 301136.6825 225336.2 1.336388246 0.211033 -200944 803217.1 conditioned area 424.9754109 120.5044 3.52663939 0.005477 156.475 693.4758 Y=424.9x+301136 73 The data were represented in Table (53) and figure (22). It’s noticeable that the standard residual decreases and the data are proximal which proves our theory that conditioned area is a predictor for energy. Table 53: RESIDUAL OUTPUT Observation Predicted energy kj Residuals Standard Residuals kj 1 343945.2747 58982.43 0.114115029 2 1638577.954 197232 0.381590415 3 344224.4295 -141447 -0.27366129 4 2223247.115 -498094 -0.9636761 5 1078392.139 1207786 2.336737876 6 433513.635 -70104.9 -0.13563398 7 747360.8639 655860.5 1.26891242 8 1044843.652 -600916 -1.16260897 9 474526.6502 -395615 -0.76540716 10 1044843.652 155156.3 0.300185495 11 481751.2321 -408736 -0.79079386 12 619868.2407 -160105 -0.30975987 Figure 22: The relationship between: Predicted Energy kj VS Real measures kj 0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000 2500000 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 Predicted energy energy 74 For schools One-Sample T: new EUI Confidence interval for schools EUI mean value was calculated using t-test; the test assumes unknow